FairValue

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Portrait of Orel Mangala

Orel

Mangala

DMBelgium · Olympique Lyon

№ 289592Established €3.8M +0.86

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLigue 1

OrelMangala

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Olympique Lyon
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Belgium
Age
28
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mangala at €9M. Model A, which never saw Mangala during training, estimates €3.8M: the market value is 136% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.86A €3.8M▲ +1.36B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
1,907
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
21/33
Min / app
58
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mangala…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €9M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €9MModel A €3.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Orel Mangala's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 33rd, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 34th, Starts 39th, Minutes, last 365 days 12th, European club minutes 64th33rdGoals8thAssists34thMinutes39thStarts12thRecent64thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

4% this player0% midfielder median64th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Jul 2017
Peak
€22M
Feb 2021
Model target
€9M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
6 club changes
Jun 2026€9MOlympique LyonValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €9M, Olympique Lyon. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-12€1MVfB Stuttgart
2017-10-18€1.8MVfB Stuttgart
2017-12-28€1.8MVfB Stuttgart
2018-06-05€1.8MVfB Stuttgart
2018-10-16€2.5MHamburger SV
2019-01-08€4MHamburger SV
2019-03-13€5.5MHamburger SV
2019-06-12€5.5MHamburger SV
2019-09-25€8MVfB Stuttgart
2019-12-13€12MVfB Stuttgart
2020-04-08€11MVfB Stuttgart
2020-11-26€14MVfB Stuttgart
2021-02-10€22MVfB Stuttgart
2021-06-09€22MVfB Stuttgart
2021-12-22€20MVfB Stuttgart
2022-03-24€15MVfB Stuttgart
2022-06-09€15MVfB Stuttgart
2022-11-03€12MNottingham Forest
2023-06-20€16MNottingham Forest
2023-10-09€20MNottingham Forest
2023-12-19€22MNottingham Forest
2024-06-03€20MOlympique Lyon
2024-12-16€20MEverton FC
2025-05-30€18MEverton FC
2025-10-10€15MOlympique Lyon
2025-12-15€10MOlympique Lyon
2026-06-01€9MOlympique Lyon

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.857

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 63% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€9MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 77% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€9MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mangala appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).