FairValue

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Portrait of Luka Modrić

Luka

Modrić

CMCroatia · AC Milan

№ 27992Established €3.1M +0.13

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

LukaModrić

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
AC Milan
League
Serie A
Nationality
Croatia
Age
40
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Modrić at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Modrić during training, estimates €3.1M: the market value is 13% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.13A €3.1M▲ +0.12B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
100
Minutes
5,834
Goals
6
Assists
12
Started
59/100
Min / app
58
Cards
15Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Modrić…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €3.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Luka Modrić's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 53rd, Assists per 90 80th, Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 33rd, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 76th53rdGoals80thAssists94thMinutes33rdStarts91stRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,834 this player2,607 midfielder median94th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Sept 2005
Peak
€55M
Jul 2014
Model target
€3.5M
May 2026
Valuations
47
3 club changes
May 2026€3.5MAC MilanValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3.5M, AC Milan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2005-09-15€150kGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2005-12-08€2.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2006-10-06€4.7MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2007-02-10€5.7MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2007-08-20€7.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2007-10-07€10.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2008-01-07€12MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2008-05-04€18MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2009-02-23€17MTottenham Hotspur
2009-06-26€18.5MTottenham Hotspur
2010-01-24€19MTottenham Hotspur
2010-08-13€22MTottenham Hotspur
2011-02-01€28MTottenham Hotspur
2011-08-08€33MTottenham Hotspur
2012-02-06€39MTottenham Hotspur
2012-08-27€40MReal Madrid
2013-01-10€35MReal Madrid
2013-06-12€35MReal Madrid
2014-01-23€40MReal Madrid
2014-07-20€55MReal Madrid
2015-01-23€55MReal Madrid
2015-07-01€50MReal Madrid
2016-02-22€50MReal Madrid
2016-06-01€50MReal Madrid
2016-07-15€50MReal Madrid
2017-01-24€45MReal Madrid
2017-06-05€40MReal Madrid
2018-01-01€40MReal Madrid
2018-05-30€25MReal Madrid
2018-12-21€25MReal Madrid
2019-06-11€20MReal Madrid
2019-12-20€15MReal Madrid
2020-04-08€12MReal Madrid
2020-10-08€10MReal Madrid
2021-01-05€10MReal Madrid
2021-05-28€10MReal Madrid
2021-12-30€10MReal Madrid
2022-06-03€10MReal Madrid
2022-11-07€10MReal Madrid
2023-06-13€10MReal Madrid
2023-12-22€10MReal Madrid
2024-03-21€8MReal Madrid
2024-06-07€6MReal Madrid
2024-12-27€5MReal Madrid
2025-06-09€4MReal Madrid
2025-12-23€4MAC Milan
2026-05-29€3.5MAC Milan

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.125

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 34% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Modrić appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).