FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Andries

Noppert

GKNetherlands · SC Heerenveen

№ 276853Emerging €388k −0.26

Player dossierEredivisie

AndriesNoppert

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
SC Heerenveen
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
32
Height
203 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Noppert at €300k. Model A, which never saw Noppert during training, estimates €388k: the market value is 23% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €461k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.26A €388k▼ −0.43B €461k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
1,855
Started
21/22
Min / app
84
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Noppert…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €388k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Andries Noppert's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 36th, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 14th, European club minutes 32nd36thMinutes14thStarts14thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

1,855 this player2,790 goalkeeper median36th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2013
Peak
€5M
Dec 2022
Model target
€300k
May 2026
Valuations
31
5 club changes
May 2026€300kSC HeerenveenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €300k, SC Heerenveen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-07-05€50kSC Heerenveen U21
2014-02-10€50kSC Heerenveen U21
2014-08-11€50kNAC Breda
2015-02-11€50kNAC Breda
2015-07-01€50kNAC Breda
2016-02-05€50kNAC Breda
2016-07-01€50kNAC Breda
2017-02-02€50kNAC Breda
2017-06-21€75kNAC Breda
2018-01-17€150kNAC Breda
2018-06-18€150kFoggia Calcio
2019-01-17€150kFoggia Calcio
2019-06-05€150kFoggia Calcio
2020-06-29€125kFC Dordrecht
2022-01-05€125kGo Ahead Eagles
2022-03-17€200kGo Ahead Eagles
2022-06-08€450kGo Ahead Eagles
2022-09-14€1MSC Heerenveen
2022-11-11€2MSC Heerenveen
2022-12-23€5MSC Heerenveen
2023-06-23€4.5MSC Heerenveen
2023-10-17€3MSC Heerenveen
2023-12-15€3MSC Heerenveen
2024-03-18€2MSC Heerenveen
2024-05-31€1.5MSC Heerenveen
2024-12-17€1MSC Heerenveen
2025-05-28€1MSC Heerenveen
2025-10-02€650kSC Heerenveen
2025-12-02€500kSC Heerenveen
2026-03-11€350kSC Heerenveen
2026-05-28€300kSC Heerenveen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.256

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 8% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Noppert appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).