FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Felix

Passlack

RBGermany · Hibernian FC

№ 274461Emerging €539k +0.26

Player dossierPremiership

FelixPasslack

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Hibernian FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Germany
Age
27
Height
170 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Passlack at €700k. Model A, which never saw Passlack during training, estimates €539k: the market value is 30% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €927k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.26A €539k▼ −0.28B €927k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
3,332
Goals
3
Assists
7
Started
40/44
Min / app
76
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Passlack…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €539k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Felix Passlack's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 80th, Assists per 90 94th, Minutes, two years 59th, Starts 72nd, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 30th80thGoals94thAssists59thMinutes72ndStarts26thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.19 this player0.04 defender median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Feb 2016
Peak
€3M
Oct 2016
Model target
€700k
May 2026
Valuations
27
6 club changes
May 2026€700kHibernian FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, Hibernian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-02-15€500kBorussia Dortmund
2016-07-22€1MBorussia Dortmund
2016-10-13€3MBorussia Dortmund
2017-02-07€3MBorussia Dortmund
2017-06-19€3MBorussia Dortmund
2017-12-28€2.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2018-06-05€1.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2019-06-28€1.5MNorwich City
2019-12-18€1.5MFortuna Sittard
2020-04-08€1.3MFortuna Sittard
2020-11-26€3MBorussia Dortmund
2021-02-10€2.5MBorussia Dortmund
2021-06-09€2.5MBorussia Dortmund
2021-12-22€2.5MBorussia Dortmund
2022-06-09€1.5MBorussia Dortmund
2022-11-09€1.5MBorussia Dortmund
2023-06-22€1.5MBorussia Dortmund
2023-12-14€1.5MVfL Bochum
2024-05-29€1.8MVfL Bochum
2024-10-09€2.5MVfL Bochum
2024-12-20€2MVfL Bochum
2025-03-27€2.5MVfL Bochum
2025-06-05€2MVfL Bochum
2025-10-09€1.5MVfL Bochum
2025-12-16€1MVfL Bochum
2026-03-05€700kHibernian FC
2026-05-20€700kHibernian FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.262

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 68% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 26% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Passlack appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).