FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Fabiano

CBBrazil · Aris Thessaloniki

№ 271335Emerging €266k +0.52

Player dossierSuper League

Fabiano

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Aris Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
34
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fabiano at €450k. Model A, which never saw Fabiano during training, estimates €266k: the market value is 69% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.69. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €303k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.52A €266k▲ +0.40B €303k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
3,431
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
38/42
Min / app
82
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fabiano…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €450kModel A €266k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Fabiano's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 79th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 61st, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 57th, European club minutes 67th79thGoals17thAssists61stMinutes70thStarts57thRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.08 this player0.03 defender median79th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Aug 2014
Peak
€1.5M
Jan 2015
Model target
€450k
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
6 club changes
Jun 2026€450kAris ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €450k, Aris Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-08-09€400kUnknown
2015-01-07€1.5MCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2015-02-01€1.5MCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2015-05-31€1.5MCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2015-12-15€1.5MCruzeiro Esporte Clube
2016-05-27€1.5MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2016-11-28€1MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2017-12-07€900kSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2019-02-18€1.3MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2019-10-11€1.3MBoavista FC
2019-12-30€1.3MBoavista FC
2020-04-08€1MBoavista FC
2020-08-17€1MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2020-12-23€700kDenizlispor
2021-03-16€575kDenizlispor
2021-05-21€400kDenizlispor
2021-11-01€500kAris Thessaloniki
2022-06-09€700kAris Thessaloniki
2022-11-07€900kAris Thessaloniki
2023-05-22€900kAris Thessaloniki
2023-12-20€900kAris Thessaloniki
2024-05-30€800kAris Thessaloniki
2024-12-18€700kAris Thessaloniki
2025-05-23€600kAris Thessaloniki
2025-12-12€500kAris Thessaloniki
2026-06-04€450kAris Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.524

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 35% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 17% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fabiano appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).