FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Scott

Tanser

LBEngland · St. Mirren FC

№ 268119Emerging €89k +0.53

Player dossierPremiership

ScottTanser

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
St. Mirren FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
England
Age
31
Height
182 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tanser at €150k. Model A, which never saw Tanser during training, estimates €89k: the market value is 69% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.69. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €947k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.53A €89k▼ −1.84B €947k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
48
Minutes
2,425
Goals
2
Assists
5
Started
26/48
Min / app
51
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tanser…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150kModel A €89k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Scott Tanser's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 77th, Assists per 90 94th, Minutes, two years 42nd, Starts 10th, Minutes, last 365 days 18th, European club minutes 62nd77thGoals94thAssists42ndMinutes10thStarts18thRecent62ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.19 this player0.04 defender median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2014
Peak
€500k
Dec 2023
Model target
€150k
May 2026
Valuations
25
2 club changes
May 2026€150kSt. Mirren FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €150k, St. Mirren FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-10-08€50kRochdale AFC
2015-02-27€125kRochdale AFC
2016-05-30€125kRochdale AFC
2018-03-04€250kSt. Johnstone FC
2018-08-08€350kSt. Johnstone FC
2019-01-03€400kSt. Johnstone FC
2019-08-20€450kSt. Johnstone FC
2020-02-05€450kSt. Johnstone FC
2020-04-08€350kSt. Johnstone FC
2020-07-21€350kSt. Johnstone FC
2021-01-18€400kSt. Johnstone FC
2021-06-28€400kSt. Johnstone FC
2021-12-31€400kSt. Mirren FC
2022-06-27€400kSt. Mirren FC
2022-12-13€400kSt. Mirren FC
2023-06-26€400kSt. Mirren FC
2023-09-22€450kSt. Mirren FC
2023-12-05€500kSt. Mirren FC
2024-05-30€500kSt. Mirren FC
2024-12-03€450kSt. Mirren FC
2025-06-17€450kSt. Mirren FC
2025-10-08€350kSt. Mirren FC
2025-12-10€350kSt. Mirren FC
2026-03-05€250kSt. Mirren FC
2026-05-20€150kSt. Mirren FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.526

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 18% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 3% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tanser appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).