FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Michee

Efete

RBDR Congo · Ross County FC

№ 265990Emerging €224k −0.40

Player dossierPremiership

MicheeEfete

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Ross County FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
DR Congo
Age
28
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
17 Jun 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Efete at €150k. Model A, which never saw Efete during training, estimates €224k: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €748k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.40A €224k▼ −1.61B €748k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
1,817
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
21/30
Min / app
61
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Efete…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150kModel A €224k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Michee Efete's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 63rd, Assists per 90 56th, Minutes, two years 29th, Starts 27th, Minutes, last 365 days 22nd, European club minutes 30th63rdGoals56thAssists29thMinutes27thStarts22ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.05 this player0.03 defender median63rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Apr 2023
Peak
€225k
Jun 2023
Model target
€150k
Jun 2025
Valuations
6
1 club change
Jun 2025€150kRoss County FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2025: €150k, Ross County FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-04-06€200kGrimsby Town
2023-06-23€225kGrimsby Town
2023-12-29€150kGrimsby Town
2024-05-30€150kRoss County FC
2024-12-03€150kRoss County FC
2025-06-17€150kRoss County FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.400

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 18% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 3% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Efete appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).