FairValue

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Portrait of David Raya

David

Raya

GKSpain · Arsenal FC

№ 262749World Class €27.3M +0.09

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

DavidRaya

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Arsenal FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Spain
Age
30
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Raya at €30M. Model A, which never saw Raya during training, estimates €27.3M: the market value is 10% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €18.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.09A €27.3M▲ +0.50B €18.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
102
Minutes
9,210
Started
102/102
Min / app
90
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Raya…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €27.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

David Raya's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 100th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 99th, European club minutes 90th100thMinutes62ndStarts99thRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

9,210 this player2,790 goalkeeper median100th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Sept 2015
Peak
€40M
Dec 2024
Model target
€30M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
2 club changes
Jun 2026€30MArsenal FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €30M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-09-24€150kBlackburn Rovers
2016-04-20€150kBlackburn Rovers
2016-09-01€150kBlackburn Rovers
2017-02-27€150kBlackburn Rovers
2018-09-24€350kBlackburn Rovers
2019-02-27€1MBlackburn Rovers
2019-06-28€1.5MBlackburn Rovers
2019-10-17€2.5MBrentford FC
2020-02-27€5MBrentford FC
2020-04-08€4MBrentford FC
2020-10-15€7MBrentford FC
2020-12-22€9MBrentford FC
2021-03-10€12MBrentford FC
2021-06-30€14MBrentford FC
2021-10-05€18MBrentford FC
2021-12-23€18MBrentford FC
2022-06-15€22MBrentford FC
2022-11-03€22MBrentford FC
2023-03-16€25MBrentford FC
2023-06-20€30MBrentford FC
2023-10-09€32MArsenal FC
2023-12-19€35MArsenal FC
2024-05-27€35MArsenal FC
2024-12-16€40MArsenal FC
2025-05-30€40MArsenal FC
2025-12-09€35MArsenal FC
2026-06-03€30MArsenal FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.094

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 73% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Joint 8th highest observed value among 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Raya appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).