FairValue

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Portrait of Unai Simón

Unai

Simón

GKSpain · Athletic Bilbao

№ 262396Elite €5.8M +1.34

Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)

Player dossierLaLiga

UnaiSimón

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Athletic Bilbao
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
28
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Simón at €22M. Model A, which never saw Simón during training, estimates €5.8M: the market value is 280% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.80. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.34A €5.8M▲ +1.03B €7.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
69
Minutes
6,210
Started
69/69
Min / app
90
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Simón…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €22M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €22MModel A €5.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Unai Simón's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 97th, European club minutes 77th87thMinutes62ndStarts97thRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,140 this player1,560 goalkeeper median97th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2015
Peak
€30M
Jul 2020
Model target
€22M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
2 club changes
Jun 2026€22MAthletic BilbaoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €22M, Athletic Bilbao. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-01€100kCD Basconia
2016-08-01€500kBilbao Athletic
2016-10-22€300kBilbao Athletic
2017-02-02€300kBilbao Athletic
2017-06-30€300kBilbao Athletic
2018-01-01€500kBilbao Athletic
2018-05-30€500kBilbao Athletic
2018-08-28€2.5MAthletic Bilbao
2018-10-31€7.5MAthletic Bilbao
2018-12-21€6MAthletic Bilbao
2019-06-11€6MAthletic Bilbao
2019-12-20€10MAthletic Bilbao
2020-03-05€20MAthletic Bilbao
2020-04-08€16MAthletic Bilbao
2020-07-23€30MAthletic Bilbao
2020-10-08€30MAthletic Bilbao
2021-01-05€30MAthletic Bilbao
2021-05-31€20MAthletic Bilbao
2021-12-30€25MAthletic Bilbao
2022-06-03€25MAthletic Bilbao
2022-11-07€25MAthletic Bilbao
2023-06-13€25MAthletic Bilbao
2023-12-22€25MAthletic Bilbao
2024-06-07€30MAthletic Bilbao
2024-12-27€28MAthletic Bilbao
2025-06-09€28MAthletic Bilbao
2025-12-12€25MAthletic Bilbao
2026-06-05€22MAthletic Bilbao

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.336

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 89% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 95% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Simón appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).