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Portrait of Timothy Castagne

Timothy

Castagne

RBBelgium · Fulham FC

№ 262226Established €8.2M −0.03

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

TimothyCastagne

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Fulham FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
30
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Castagne at €8M. Model A, which never saw Castagne during training, estimates €8.2M: the market value is 3% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.03A €8.2M▲ +0.70B €4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
4,485
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
48/65
Min / app
69
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Castagne…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €8.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Timothy Castagne's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 40th, Assists per 90 50th, Minutes, two years 76th, Starts 33rd, Minutes, last 365 days 72nd, European club minutes 30th40thGoals50thAssists76thMinutes33rdStarts72ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,485 this player2,860 defender median76th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Oct 2014
Peak
€28M
May 2021
Model target
€8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
3 club changes
Jun 2026€8MFulham FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €8M, Fulham FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-10-05€400kKRC Genk
2015-01-07€1MKRC Genk
2015-06-24€2MKRC Genk
2016-02-07€2MKRC Genk
2016-07-15€2MKRC Genk
2017-01-21€2MKRC Genk
2017-06-06€3MKRC Genk
2017-10-13€4MAtalanta BC
2017-12-29€4MAtalanta BC
2018-06-07€5MAtalanta BC
2018-12-20€5MAtalanta BC
2019-03-01€10MAtalanta BC
2019-06-06€18MAtalanta BC
2019-12-12€20MAtalanta BC
2020-04-08€16MAtalanta BC
2020-08-25€18MAtalanta BC
2020-10-13€24MLeicester City
2021-03-18€24MLeicester City
2021-05-26€28MLeicester City
2021-12-23€28MLeicester City
2022-06-15€28MLeicester City
2022-11-03€28MLeicester City
2023-06-20€25MLeicester City
2023-10-09€17MFulham FC
2023-12-19€17MFulham FC
2024-05-27€17MFulham FC
2024-12-16€15MFulham FC
2025-05-30€13MFulham FC
2025-12-09€10MFulham FC
2026-06-03€8MFulham FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.028

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 27% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Castagne appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).