FairValue

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Ricardo

Horta

LWPortugal · SC Braga

№ 261927Established €7.7M +0.16

Player dossierLiga Portugal

RicardoHorta

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
SC Braga
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
31
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Horta at €9M. Model A, which never saw Horta during training, estimates €7.7M: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €7.7M▼ −0.12B €10.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
99
Minutes
7,942
Goals
32
Assists
20
Started
94/99
Min / app
80
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Horta…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €9M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €9MModel A €7.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Ricardo Horta's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 69th, Assists per 90 78th, Minutes, two years 100th, Starts 99th, Minutes, last 365 days 99th, European club minutes 96th69thGoals78thAssists100thMinutes99thStarts99thRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,942 this player2,242 attacker median100th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Apr 2013
Peak
€20M
Mar 2022
Model target
€9M
May 2026
Valuations
34
2 club changes
May 2026€9MSC BragaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €9M, SC Braga. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-04-03€100kVitória Setúbal FC
2013-07-02€700kVitória Setúbal FC
2014-02-26€1MVitória Setúbal FC
2014-07-20€2.5MMálaga CF
2015-01-23€2.5MMálaga CF
2015-07-01€2.5MMálaga CF
2015-11-22€2MMálaga CF
2016-02-22€1.5MMálaga CF
2016-07-29€1.2MSC Braga
2017-02-22€1.8MSC Braga
2017-06-26€1.8MSC Braga
2018-02-07€2.5MSC Braga
2018-04-16€5MSC Braga
2018-06-13€7MSC Braga
2018-11-01€10MSC Braga
2019-01-11€10MSC Braga
2019-06-07€9MSC Braga
2019-12-30€10MSC Braga
2020-04-08€8MSC Braga
2020-08-17€12MSC Braga
2021-01-28€14MSC Braga
2021-05-21€14MSC Braga
2021-12-27€17MSC Braga
2022-03-10€20MSC Braga
2022-05-31€20MSC Braga
2022-11-01€20MSC Braga
2023-06-16€20MSC Braga
2023-12-27€20MSC Braga
2024-03-08€18MSC Braga
2024-06-06€15MSC Braga
2024-12-19€12MSC Braga
2025-05-30€12MSC Braga
2025-12-18€10MSC Braga
2026-05-28€9MSC Braga

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.159

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 86% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€9MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 76% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€9MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Horta appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).