FairValue

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Portrait of Vanja Milinković-Savić

Vanja

Milinković-Savić

GKSerbia · SSC Napoli

№ 257474Elite €16.3M +0.20

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

VanjaMilinković-Savić

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
SSC Napoli
League
Serie A
Nationality
Serbia
Age
29
Height
202 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Milinković-Savić at €20M. Model A, which never saw Milinković-Savić during training, estimates €16.3M: the market value is 23% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €13.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.20A €16.3M▲ +0.39B €13.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
77
Minutes
6,930
Started
77/77
Min / app
90
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Milinković-Savić…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €16.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Vanja Milinković-Savić's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 72nd93rdMinutes62ndStarts90thRecent72ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,930 this player2,790 goalkeeper median93rd percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€750k
Nov 2014
Peak
€20M
Dec 2025
Model target
€20M
May 2026
Valuations
32
7 club changes
May 2026€20MSSC NapoliValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €20M, SSC Napoli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-11-11€750kFK Vojvodina Novi Sad
2015-01-10€750kFK Vojvodina Novi Sad
2015-06-15€750kFK Vojvodina Novi Sad
2016-03-28€500kLechia Gdansk
2016-07-24€500kLechia Gdansk
2017-01-21€500kLechia Gdansk
2017-07-01€1.5MTorino FC
2017-12-29€2MTorino FC
2018-06-07€2MTorino FC
2018-12-20€1.8MSPAL
2019-06-05€1.2MAscoli Calcio
2019-12-13€1.2MStandard Liège
2020-03-30€900kStandard Liège
2020-04-08€725kStandard Liège
2020-08-25€700kTorino FC
2020-12-29€800kTorino FC
2021-06-03€800kTorino FC
2021-10-14€1.5MTorino FC
2021-12-28€4.5MTorino FC
2022-06-07€2.5MTorino FC
2022-11-11€2.5MTorino FC
2022-12-23€3.5MTorino FC
2023-06-15€3.5MTorino FC
2023-10-11€6MTorino FC
2023-12-20€5MTorino FC
2024-06-05€5MTorino FC
2024-12-18€8MTorino FC
2025-03-25€12MTorino FC
2025-06-17€16MTorino FC
2025-10-07€18MSSC Napoli
2025-12-23€20MSSC Napoli
2026-05-29€20MSSC Napoli

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.205

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 82% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 95% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Milinković-Savić appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).