FairValue

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Daniel

Podence

LWPortugal · Olympiacos Piraeus

№ 256977Established €2.9M +0.34

Player dossierSuper League

DanielPodence

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Olympiacos Piraeus
League
Super League
Nationality
Portugal
Age
30
Height
170 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Podence at €4M. Model A, which never saw Podence during training, estimates €2.9M: the market value is 40% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.34A €2.9M▲ +0.79B €1.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
1,944
Goals
2
Assists
9
Started
22/31
Min / app
63
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Podence…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €2.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Daniel Podence's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 13th, Assists per 90 98th, Minutes, two years 43rd, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 67th, European club minutes 93rd13thGoals98thAssists43rdMinutes70thStarts67thRecent93rdEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.42 this player0.15 attacker median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Jul 2015
Peak
€25M
Dec 2020
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
6 club changes
Jun 2026€4MOlympiacos PiraeusValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Olympiacos Piraeus. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-31€250kSporting CP B
2016-03-14€400kSporting CP B
2016-07-29€1.5MSporting CP
2017-02-22€2.5MSporting CP
2017-06-26€2.5MSporting CP
2018-02-07€4.5MSporting CP
2018-06-13€4.5MSporting CP
2018-12-07€4.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2019-05-21€4.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2019-09-23€6MOlympiacos Piraeus
2019-12-18€6MOlympiacos Piraeus
2020-02-11€15MWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-04-08€12MWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-07-30€17MWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-10-13€22MWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-12-17€25MWolverhampton Wanderers
2021-03-18€25MWolverhampton Wanderers
2021-06-08€25MWolverhampton Wanderers
2021-12-23€22MWolverhampton Wanderers
2022-06-15€20MWolverhampton Wanderers
2022-11-03€20MWolverhampton Wanderers
2023-06-20€20MWolverhampton Wanderers
2023-09-21€15MOlympiacos Piraeus
2023-12-20€13MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-05-30€13MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-12-13€7MAl-Shabab FC
2025-05-27€5.5MAl-Shabab FC
2025-12-12€5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2026-06-04€4MOlympiacos Piraeus

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.336

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 89% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 59% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Podence appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).