FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Joe Gomez

Joe

Gomez

CBEngland · Liverpool FC

№ 256178Elite €12.6M +0.03

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JoeGomez

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Liverpool FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
29
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gomez at €13M. Model A, which never saw Gomez during training, estimates €12.6M: the market value is 3% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.03A €12.6M▲ +0.35B €9.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
2,034
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
24/47
Min / app
43
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gomez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €13M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €13MModel A €12.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Joe Gomez's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 35th, Starts 8th, Minutes, last 365 days 41st, European club minutes 90th18thGoals74thAssists35thMinutes8thStarts41stRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

24% this player0% defender median90th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2014
Peak
€42M
Mar 2020
Model target
€13M
Jun 2026
Valuations
35
1 club change
Jun 2026€13MLiverpool FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €13M, Liverpool FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-08-19€50kCharlton Athletic
2015-02-24€500kCharlton Athletic
2015-07-01€2.5MLiverpool FC
2016-02-09€3.5MLiverpool FC
2016-08-01€3.5MLiverpool FC
2017-02-20€3.5MLiverpool FC
2017-06-28€4MLiverpool FC
2017-10-23€8MLiverpool FC
2018-01-02€18MLiverpool FC
2018-05-28€22MLiverpool FC
2018-10-17€28MLiverpool FC
2018-12-19€35MLiverpool FC
2019-06-13€35MLiverpool FC
2019-12-10€35MLiverpool FC
2020-03-09€42MLiverpool FC
2020-04-08€33.5MLiverpool FC
2020-07-30€40MLiverpool FC
2020-10-13€40MLiverpool FC
2021-03-18€35MLiverpool FC
2021-06-08€30MLiverpool FC
2021-12-23€25MLiverpool FC
2022-03-29€22MLiverpool FC
2022-06-15€18MLiverpool FC
2022-09-15€25MLiverpool FC
2022-11-03€30MLiverpool FC
2023-06-20€22MLiverpool FC
2023-12-19€22MLiverpool FC
2024-03-14€25MLiverpool FC
2024-05-27€28MLiverpool FC
2024-12-16€28MLiverpool FC
2025-03-18€25MLiverpool FC
2025-05-30€20MLiverpool FC
2025-10-17€18MLiverpool FC
2025-12-09€15MLiverpool FC
2026-06-03€13MLiverpool FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.034

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 40% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 86% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gomez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).