Nicolai
Poulsen
CMDenmark · Aarhus GF
Player dossierSuperliga
NicolaiPoulsen
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Aarhus GF
- League
- Superliga
- Nationality
- Denmark
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 25 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Poulsen at €200k. Model A, which never saw Poulsen during training, estimates €433k: the market value is 54% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €568k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 37
- Minutes
- 2,722
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 34/37
- Min / app
- 74
- Cards
- 8Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Poulsen…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
92% this player69% midfielder median89th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- May 2013
- Peak
- €900k
- Dec 2020
- Model target
- €200k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 28
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €200k, Aarhus GF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2013-05-16 | €100k | Randers Freja (RFC II) |
| 2013-06-17 | €200k | Randers Freja (RFC II) |
| 2014-08-31 | €300k | Randers FC |
| 2015-02-06 | €500k | Randers FC |
| 2015-09-02 | €700k | Randers FC |
| 2016-01-21 | €700k | Randers FC |
| 2016-08-12 | €700k | Randers FC |
| 2016-12-12 | €600k | Randers FC |
| 2017-06-21 | €600k | Randers FC |
| 2017-12-23 | €600k | Sarpsborg 08 FF |
| 2018-06-02 | €500k | Randers FC |
| 2018-12-21 | €600k | Randers FC |
| 2019-06-08 | €600k | Randers FC |
| 2019-12-22 | €800k | Aarhus GF |
| 2020-04-08 | €650k | Aarhus GF |
| 2020-07-31 | €800k | Aarhus GF |
| 2020-12-23 | €900k | Aarhus GF |
| 2021-06-04 | €800k | Aarhus GF |
| 2021-12-28 | €900k | Aarhus GF |
| 2022-06-20 | €800k | Aarhus GF |
| 2022-12-22 | €800k | Aarhus GF |
| 2023-06-26 | €800k | Aarhus GF |
| 2023-12-21 | €800k | Aarhus GF |
| 2024-06-10 | €700k | Aarhus GF |
| 2024-12-09 | €600k | Aarhus GF |
| 2025-06-16 | €500k | Aarhus GF |
| 2025-12-15 | €300k | Aarhus GF |
| 2026-05-25 | €200k | Aarhus GF |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.773
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Superliga256 players · median €800k
Valued above 7% of the 256 Superliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 3% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Poulsen appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ZankaCBFC Copenhagen · Superliga€200k
- MortensenCFAarhus GF · Superliga€200k
- SørensenLBVejle Boldklub · Superliga€200k
- NgbakotoRWVejle Boldklub · Superliga€200k
- CazorlaCMReal Oviedo · midfielders€200k
- KvekveskiriDMFC Orenburg · midfielders€200k
- VillafañezAMAE Kifisia · midfielders€200k
- ArmstrongCMAberdeen FC · midfielders€200k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).