FairValue

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Adrián

Balboa

CFUruguay · FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod

№ 252209Emerging €442k +0.12

Player dossierPremier Liga

AdriánBalboa

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Uruguay
Age
32
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Balboa at €500k. Model A, which never saw Balboa during training, estimates €442k: the market value is 13% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €369k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.12A €442k▲ +0.30B €369k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
12
Minutes
810
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
10/12
Min / app
68
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Balboa…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €442k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Adrián Balboa's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 64th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 13th, Starts 87th, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 28th64thGoals6thAssists13thMinutes87thStarts29thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

83% this player59% attacker median87th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Dec 2013
Peak
€1M
Dec 2024
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
28
15 club changes
May 2026€500kFC Pari Nizhniy NovgorodValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-12-02€100kPanathinaikos
2014-03-28€100kPanathinaikos
2014-08-26€250kDanubio FC
2015-02-12€250kDanubio FC
2015-08-14€300kLiverpool FC Montevideo
2016-02-25€300kCA Villa Teresa
2016-08-08€450kCA Sarmiento (Junin)
2017-02-13€750kCA Sarmiento (Junin)
2017-10-09€750kCA Patronato
2018-05-08€750kCA Patronato
2018-12-18€500kClub Atlético Belgrano
2019-05-22€500kDeportes Antofagasta
2020-02-15€600kClub Alianza Lima
2020-04-08€475kClub Alianza Lima
2020-10-08€450kRacing Santander
2021-01-07€350kRacing Santander
2021-05-17€350kClub Atlético Belgrano
2021-12-22€350kClub Atlético Belgrano
2022-06-02€350kDefensor Sporting Club
2022-11-12€425kDefensor Sporting Club
2023-04-03€750kDefensor Sporting Club
2023-07-10€750kDefensor Sporting Club
2023-12-07€750kDeportivo Pereira
2024-06-12€800kCA Unión (Santa Fe)
2024-12-13€1MCA Unión (Santa Fe)
2025-06-02€800kRacing Club
2025-12-17€600kRacing Club
2026-05-26€500kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.123

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 15% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Balboa appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).