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Portrait of Adam Armstrong

Adam

Armstrong

CFEngland · Wolverhampton Wanderers

№ 250426Established €9.3M −0.44

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AdamArmstrong

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Wolverhampton Wanderers
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
29
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Armstrong at €6M. Model A, which never saw Armstrong during training, estimates €9.3M: the market value is 36% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.44A €9.3M▲ +1.06B €2.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
2,645
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
31/40
Min / app
66
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Armstrong…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €9.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Adam Armstrong's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 20th, Assists per 90 46th, Minutes, two years 60th, Starts 80th, Minutes, last 365 days 53rd, European club minutes 28th20thGoals46thAssists60thMinutes80thStarts53rdRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

78% this player59% attacker median80th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Nov 2014
Peak
€18M
Jun 2021
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
8 club changes
Jun 2026€6MWolverhampton WanderersValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, Wolverhampton Wanderers. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-11-22€250kNewcastle United
2015-07-01€750kNewcastle United
2016-05-30€1MCoventry City
2016-09-01€1.5MBarnsley FC
2017-02-27€1.5MBarnsley FC
2017-06-28€1.5MNewcastle United
2018-09-24€2MBlackburn Rovers
2019-06-28€2.5MBlackburn Rovers
2020-02-27€5MBlackburn Rovers
2020-04-08€4MBlackburn Rovers
2020-10-15€7MBlackburn Rovers
2020-12-22€10MBlackburn Rovers
2021-03-10€16MBlackburn Rovers
2021-06-30€18MBlackburn Rovers
2021-12-23€18MSouthampton FC
2022-03-29€16MSouthampton FC
2022-06-15€15MSouthampton FC
2022-11-03€15MSouthampton FC
2023-03-16€12MSouthampton FC
2023-06-20€10MSouthampton FC
2023-10-27€14MSouthampton FC
2023-12-21€16MSouthampton FC
2024-05-24€16MSouthampton FC
2024-12-16€16MSouthampton FC
2025-03-28€14MWest Bromwich Albion
2025-05-27€12MWest Bromwich Albion
2025-10-06€10MSouthampton FC
2025-12-03€9MSouthampton FC
2026-03-09€8MWolverhampton Wanderers
2026-06-03€6MWolverhampton Wanderers

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.439

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 23% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 68% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Armstrong appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).