FairValue

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Portrait of Youri Tielemans

Youri

Tielemans

CMBelgium · Aston Villa

№ 249565World Class €32.6M −0.08

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

YouriTielemans

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Aston Villa
League
Premier League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
29
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tielemans at €30M. Model A, which never saw Tielemans during training, estimates €32.6M: the market value is 8% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €23.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.08A €32.6M▲ +0.24B €23.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
87
Minutes
7,009
Goals
6
Assists
17
Started
79/87
Min / app
81
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tielemans…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €32.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Youri Tielemans's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 48th, Assists per 90 87th, Minutes, two years 98th, Starts 88th, Minutes, last 365 days 80th, European club minutes 89th48thGoals87thAssists98thMinutes88thStarts80thRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,009 this player2,607 midfielder median98th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Aug 2013
Peak
€55M
Dec 2019
Model target
€30M
Jun 2026
Valuations
38
3 club changes
Jun 2026€30MAston VillaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €30M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-08-12€1MRSC Anderlecht
2013-10-08€3MRSC Anderlecht
2014-02-10€7MRSC Anderlecht
2014-06-28€12MRSC Anderlecht
2015-01-07€12MRSC Anderlecht
2016-02-07€12MRSC Anderlecht
2016-07-15€14MRSC Anderlecht
2017-01-21€17MRSC Anderlecht
2017-03-30€20MRSC Anderlecht
2017-06-06€22MRSC Anderlecht
2018-01-24€25MAS Monaco
2018-06-04€20MAS Monaco
2018-12-17€18MAS Monaco
2019-03-05€22MLeicester City
2019-06-13€38MLeicester City
2019-09-12€45MLeicester City
2019-12-10€55MLeicester City
2020-04-08€44MLeicester City
2020-10-13€45MLeicester City
2020-12-17€50MLeicester City
2021-03-18€55MLeicester City
2021-05-26€55MLeicester City
2021-12-23€55MLeicester City
2022-06-15€55MLeicester City
2022-09-15€45MLeicester City
2022-11-03€40MLeicester City
2023-03-16€30MLeicester City
2023-06-20€25MLeicester City
2023-10-09€20MAston Villa
2023-12-19€20MAston Villa
2024-03-14€25MAston Villa
2024-05-27€25MAston Villa
2024-10-01€30MAston Villa
2024-12-16€30MAston Villa
2025-03-18€35MAston Villa
2025-05-30€38MAston Villa
2025-12-09€35MAston Villa
2026-06-03€30MAston Villa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.084

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 73% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tielemans appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).