Lucas
Höler
CFGermany · SC Freiburg
Player dossierBundesliga
LucasHöler
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- SC Freiburg
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 184 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Höler at €3M. Model A, which never saw Höler during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 61% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 81
- Minutes
- 4,457
- Goals
- 12
- Assists
- 6
- Started
- 50/81
- Min / app
- 55
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Höler…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
4,457 this player2,242 attacker median86th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jul 2013
- Peak
- €6.5M
- Dec 2021
- Model target
- €3M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 32
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €3M, SC Freiburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2013-07-30 | €50k | VfB Oldenburg |
| 2013-10-21 | €50k | VfB Oldenburg |
| 2014-02-20 | €75k | VfB Oldenburg |
| 2014-08-08 | €150k | 1.FSV Mainz 05 II |
| 2015-03-07 | €150k | 1.FSV Mainz 05 II |
| 2015-07-01 | €300k | 1.FSV Mainz 05 II |
| 2015-10-29 | €300k | 1.FSV Mainz 05 II |
| 2016-02-08 | €300k | 1.FSV Mainz 05 II |
| 2016-07-22 | €400k | SV Sandhausen |
| 2017-01-23 | €650k | SV Sandhausen |
| 2017-06-27 | €650k | SV Sandhausen |
| 2017-10-17 | €900k | SV Sandhausen |
| 2018-01-22 | €1.5M | SC Freiburg |
| 2018-06-05 | €2M | SC Freiburg |
| 2018-12-18 | €3M | SC Freiburg |
| 2019-06-05 | €3M | SC Freiburg |
| 2019-12-17 | €4M | SC Freiburg |
| 2020-04-08 | €3.2M | SC Freiburg |
| 2020-07-08 | €4M | SC Freiburg |
| 2021-02-10 | €4M | SC Freiburg |
| 2021-06-09 | €4M | SC Freiburg |
| 2021-10-07 | €5M | SC Freiburg |
| 2021-12-22 | €6.5M | SC Freiburg |
| 2022-06-09 | €6.5M | SC Freiburg |
| 2022-11-09 | €5M | SC Freiburg |
| 2023-06-22 | €5M | SC Freiburg |
| 2023-12-14 | €5M | SC Freiburg |
| 2024-05-29 | €4M | SC Freiburg |
| 2024-12-20 | €3.5M | SC Freiburg |
| 2025-06-05 | €3M | SC Freiburg |
| 2025-12-19 | €3M | SC Freiburg |
| 2026-05-27 | €3M | SC Freiburg |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.478
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 31% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Höler appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GötzeAMEintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga€3M
- ArnoldCMVfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga€3M
- WeiserRBSV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga€3M
- CanCBBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€3M
- WelbeckCFBrighton & Hove Albion · attackers€3M
- SterlingRWFeyenoord Rotterdam · attackers€3M
- BrumaLWSL Benfica · attackers€3M
- SilvaCFElche CF · attackers€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).