FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Pierluigi Gollini

Pierluigi

Gollini

GKItaly · AS Roma

№ 244192Emerging €1.3M −0.47

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

PierluigiGollini

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
AS Roma
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
31
Height
194 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gollini at €800k. Model A, which never saw Gollini during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 38% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €788k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.47A €1.3M▲ +0.02B €788k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
8
Minutes
720
Started
8/8
Min / app
90
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gollini…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Pierluigi Gollini's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 10th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 77th10thMinutes62ndStarts6thRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

13% this player0% goalkeeper median77th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2014
Peak
€17M
Aug 2020
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
34
7 club changes
May 2026€800kAS RomaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, AS Roma. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-08-06€200kHellas Verona
2014-11-08€500kHellas Verona
2015-01-07€500kHellas Verona
2015-07-01€800kHellas Verona
2016-01-04€1MHellas Verona
2016-04-01€2MHellas Verona
2016-09-01€4MAston Villa
2017-06-08€4MAtalanta BC
2017-12-29€3.5MAtalanta BC
2018-06-07€3.5MAtalanta BC
2018-12-20€3.5MAtalanta BC
2019-06-06€6MAtalanta BC
2019-10-08€8MAtalanta BC
2019-12-12€12MAtalanta BC
2020-03-03€16MAtalanta BC
2020-04-08€13MAtalanta BC
2020-08-25€17MAtalanta BC
2020-12-29€17MAtalanta BC
2021-06-03€17MAtalanta BC
2021-10-05€15MTottenham Hotspur
2021-12-23€13MTottenham Hotspur
2022-03-29€10MTottenham Hotspur
2022-06-15€10MTottenham Hotspur
2022-09-27€7.5MACF Fiorentina
2022-11-11€5MACF Fiorentina
2023-06-15€4.5MSSC Napoli
2023-12-20€4.5MSSC Napoli
2024-06-05€4MSSC Napoli
2024-12-18€2.5MGenoa CFC
2025-03-25€1MAS Roma
2025-06-17€1MAS Roma
2025-10-07€800kAS Roma
2025-12-23€800kAS Roma
2026-05-29€800kAS Roma

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.474

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 4% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 39% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gollini appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).