FairValue

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Portrait of Jan Bednarek

Jan

Bednarek

CBPoland · FC Porto

№ 243028Elite €15.1M −0.32

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

JanBednarek

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Porto
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Poland
Age
30
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bednarek at €11M. Model A, which never saw Bednarek during training, estimates €15.1M: the market value is 27% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.32A €15.1M▲ +0.16B €9.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
76
Minutes
6,286
Goals
4
Assists
0
Started
74/76
Min / app
83
Cards
17Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bednarek…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €11M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €11MModel A €15.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jan Bednarek's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 69th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 91st, Minutes, last 365 days 97th, European club minutes 77th69thGoals17thAssists94thMinutes91stStarts97thRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,588 this player1,687 defender median97th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2013
Peak
€25M
Mar 2021
Model target
€11M
May 2026
Valuations
34
6 club changes
May 2026€11MFC PortoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €11M, FC Porto. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-10-21€50kLech Poznan
2014-02-14€50kLech Poznan
2014-07-21€100kLech Poznan
2015-03-05€100kLech Poznan
2015-06-30€150kLech Poznan
2016-01-10€150kGornik Leczna
2016-03-28€150kGornik Leczna
2016-07-24€150kLech Poznan
2017-01-21€500kLech Poznan
2017-08-16€5MSouthampton FC
2018-01-02€5MSouthampton FC
2018-05-28€5MSouthampton FC
2018-12-19€5MSouthampton FC
2019-03-05€8MSouthampton FC
2019-06-13€15MSouthampton FC
2019-12-10€15MSouthampton FC
2020-04-08€12MSouthampton FC
2020-07-30€15MSouthampton FC
2020-10-13€15MSouthampton FC
2020-12-17€20MSouthampton FC
2021-03-18€25MSouthampton FC
2021-05-31€25MSouthampton FC
2021-12-23€22MSouthampton FC
2022-06-15€22MSouthampton FC
2022-11-03€18MAston Villa
2023-03-16€14MSouthampton FC
2023-06-20€14MSouthampton FC
2023-10-27€12MSouthampton FC
2023-12-21€11MSouthampton FC
2024-05-24€11MSouthampton FC
2024-12-16€11MSouthampton FC
2025-05-30€9MSouthampton FC
2025-12-18€11MFC Porto
2026-05-28€11MFC Porto

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.318

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 88% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€11MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 83% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€11MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bednarek appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).