FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Paschalis

Staikos

DMGreece · AE Larisa

№ 242668Emerging €525k −0.40

Player dossierSuper League

PaschalisStaikos

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
AE Larisa
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
30
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Staikos at €350k. Model A, which never saw Staikos during training, estimates €525k: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.50. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €663k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.40A €525k▼ −0.64B €663k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
38
Minutes
2,603
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
35/38
Min / app
69
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Staikos…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €350kModel A €525k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Paschalis Staikos's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 38th, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 90th, Minutes, last 365 days 27th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals38thAssists50thMinutes90thStarts27thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player69% midfielder median90th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Feb 2016
Peak
€400k
May 2025
Model target
€350k
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
3 club changes
Jun 2026€350kAE LarisaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €350k, AE Larisa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-02-21€100kPanathinaikos
2016-06-21€100kPanathinaikos
2016-12-21€100kPanathinaikos
2017-05-11€100kPanathinaikos
2017-12-18€100kPanathinaikos
2018-05-22€150kPanathinaikos
2018-12-07€250kPanathinaikos
2019-05-21€250kPanathinaikos
2019-12-18€250kOFI Crete
2020-08-04€300kOFI Crete
2021-02-12€350kOFI Crete
2021-11-01€300kOFI Crete
2022-06-09€300kOFI Crete
2022-11-07€300kOFI Crete
2023-02-27€250kPanserraikos
2023-06-19€250kPanserraikos
2023-12-20€350kPanserraikos
2024-05-30€350kPanserraikos
2024-12-18€350kPanserraikos
2025-05-23€400kPanserraikos
2025-12-12€400kAE Larisa
2026-06-04€350kAE Larisa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.405

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 25% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 10% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Staikos appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).