FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Bilal

Ould-Chikh

RWMorocco · FC Volendam

№ 241324Emerging €522k +0.22

Player dossierEredivisie

BilalOuld-Chikh

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
FC Volendam
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Morocco
Age
28
Height
170 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ould-Chikh at €650k. Model A, which never saw Ould-Chikh during training, estimates €522k: the market value is 25% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.25. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €629k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.22A €522k▲ +0.03B €629k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
13
Minutes
975
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
12/13
Min / app
75
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ould-Chikh…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €650k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €650kModel A €522k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Bilal Ould-Chikh's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 29th, Minutes, two years 18th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 36th, European club minutes 28th3rdGoals29thAssists18thMinutes97thStarts36thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player59% attacker median97th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Mar 2014
Peak
€1.5M
Jul 2015
Model target
€650k
May 2026
Valuations
25
9 club changes
May 2026€650kFC VolendamValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €650k, FC Volendam. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-03-19€50kFC Twente Enschede U21
2014-08-11€500kFC Twente Enschede
2015-02-16€1MFC Twente Enschede
2015-07-01€1.5MFC Twente Enschede
2016-03-14€1.3MSL Benfica B
2016-09-30€1MSL Benfica B
2017-04-01€750kWithout Club
2018-01-17€600kFC Utrecht
2018-06-12€500kFC Utrecht
2019-06-17€100kDenizlispor
2019-09-19€300kADO Den Haag
2019-12-18€300kADO Den Haag
2020-10-14€300kADO Den Haag
2021-05-19€250kADO Den Haag
2022-06-23€250kFC Volendam
2022-11-11€350kFC Volendam
2023-06-23€350kFC Volendam
2023-10-17€500kFC Volendam
2023-12-15€500kFC Volendam
2024-03-18€600kFC Volendam
2024-05-31€600kFC Volendam
2024-12-10€650kFC Volendam
2025-06-09€900kFC Volendam
2025-11-28€800kRaja Club Athletic
2026-05-28€650kFC Volendam

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.220

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 32% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€650kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 22% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€650kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ould-Chikh appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).