FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Maksymilian

Stryjek

GKPoland · Kilmarnock FC

№ 240457Emerging €223k +0.30

Player dossierPremiership

MaksymilianStryjek

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Kilmarnock FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Poland
Age
29
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Stryjek at €300k. Model A, which never saw Stryjek during training, estimates €223k: the market value is 35% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €827k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.30A €223k▼ −1.01B €827k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
8
Minutes
720
Started
8/8
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Stryjek…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €223k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Maksymilian Stryjek's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 10th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 77th10thMinutes62ndStarts26thRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

13% this player0% goalkeeper median77th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jan 2021
Peak
€700k
Apr 2023
Model target
€300k
May 2026
Valuations
12
3 club changes
May 2026€300kKilmarnock FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €300k, Kilmarnock FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-18€300kLivingston FC
2021-06-28€375kLivingston FC
2021-12-31€425kLivingston FC
2022-06-27€500kLivingston FC
2023-04-05€700kWycombe Wanderers
2023-06-09€700kWycombe Wanderers
2023-12-27€600kWycombe Wanderers
2024-06-28€450kWycombe Wanderers
2024-12-09€350kJagiellonia Bialystok
2025-06-06€350kJagiellonia Bialystok
2025-12-10€300kKilmarnock FC
2026-05-20€300kKilmarnock FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.297

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 40% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Stryjek appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).