FairValue

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Portrait of Bruno Fernandes

Bruno

Fernandes

AMPortugal · Manchester United

№ 240306World Class €22.4M +0.45

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

BrunoFernandes

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Manchester United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Portugal
Age
31
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fernandes at €35M. Model A, which never saw Fernandes during training, estimates €22.4M: the market value is 56% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €13.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.45A €22.4M▲ +0.95B €13.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
91
Minutes
7,927
Goals
26
Assists
39
Started
89/91
Min / app
87
Cards
14Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fernandes…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €35M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €35MModel A €22.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Bruno Fernandes's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 93rd, Assists per 90 99th, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 95th, European club minutes 79th93rdGoals99thAssists99thMinutes97thStarts95thRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.44 this player0.09 midfielder median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2012
Peak
€90M
Dec 2020
Model target
€35M
Jun 2026
Valuations
40
4 club changes
Jun 2026€35MManchester UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €35M, Manchester United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-10-25€50kNovara Calcio 1908
2012-12-25€75kNovara Calcio 1908
2013-02-25€100kNovara Calcio 1908
2013-06-25€3.5MNovara Calcio 1908
2014-01-07€4.5MUdinese Calcio
2014-07-01€7MUdinese Calcio
2015-01-07€7MUdinese Calcio
2015-07-01€6.5MUdinese Calcio
2016-01-04€6.5MUdinese Calcio
2016-07-15€6.5MUdinese Calcio
2017-01-02€7MUC Sampdoria
2017-06-08€7.5MUC Sampdoria
2017-11-06€12MSporting CP
2018-02-07€17MSporting CP
2018-04-16€20MSporting CP
2018-06-13€30MSporting CP
2018-11-01€26MSporting CP
2019-01-11€30MSporting CP
2019-03-18€35MSporting CP
2019-06-07€55MSporting CP
2019-10-11€60MSporting CP
2019-12-30€60MSporting CP
2020-04-08€48MManchester United
2020-07-30€70MManchester United
2020-10-13€80MManchester United
2020-12-17€90MManchester United
2021-03-18€90MManchester United
2021-06-01€90MManchester United
2021-12-23€90MManchester United
2022-06-15€85MManchester United
2022-11-03€75MManchester United
2023-06-20€75MManchester United
2023-12-19€70MManchester United
2024-05-27€70MManchester United
2024-10-01€65MManchester United
2024-12-16€55MManchester United
2025-05-30€50MManchester United
2025-10-17€45MManchester United
2025-12-09€40MManchester United
2026-06-03€35MManchester United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.446

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 79% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fernandes appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).