BirgerVerstraete

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club: Oud-Heverlee Leuven
League: Pro League
Nationality: Belgium
Age: 32
Height: 174 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Verstraete at €900k. Model A, which never saw Verstraete during training, estimates €783k: the market value is 15% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 52
Minutes: 3,859
Goals: 0
Assists: 3
Started: 42/52
Min / app: 74
Cards: 16Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Verstraete…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,859 this player2,607 midfielder median72nd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €100k; Sept 2012
Peak: €4M; Sept 2018
Model target: €900k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 35; 8 club changes

Jun 2026€900kOud-Heverlee LeuvenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €900k, Oud-Heverlee Leuven. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2012-09-18	€100k	Club Brugge KV
2013-01-09	€600k	Club Brugge KV
2013-06-25	€600k	Club Brugge KV
2014-02-10	€500k	Club Brugge KV
2014-06-28	€500k	Club Brugge KV
2014-10-05	€400k	Mouscron-Péruwelz
2015-01-11	€400k	Mouscron-Péruwelz
2016-02-07	€350k	KV Kortrijk
2016-07-15	€500k	KV Kortrijk
2016-10-20	€1.2M	KV Kortrijk
2017-01-21	€1.7M	KAA Gent
2017-06-06	€1.7M	KAA Gent
2018-01-09	€1.5M	KAA Gent
2018-03-30	€1.7M	KAA Gent
2018-06-03	€2.5M	KAA Gent
2018-09-11	€4M	KAA Gent
2018-12-27	€4M	KAA Gent
2019-03-04	€3.5M	KAA Gent
2019-06-10	€4M	KAA Gent
2019-12-17	€4M	1.FC Köln
2020-04-08	€3.2M	1.FC Köln
2020-10-16	€2.8M	Royal Antwerp FC
2021-01-04	€2.3M	Royal Antwerp FC
2021-06-07	€2.5M	Royal Antwerp FC
2022-01-06	€2.8M	Royal Antwerp FC
2022-04-12	€2.8M	Royal Antwerp FC
2022-09-07	€2.5M	KV Mechelen
2022-11-04	€2M	KV Mechelen
2023-06-09	€1.8M	KV Mechelen
2023-12-20	€1.8M	Aris Thessaloniki
2024-05-30	€1.8M	Aris Thessaloniki
2024-12-11	€2M	Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-06-12	€1.8M	Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-12-10	€1.3M	Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2026-06-04	€900k	Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.139

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 27% of the 350 Pro League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 30% of the 1,687 midfielders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Verstraete appears

TerminalPro League in the Player Explorer
TerminalPro League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).