FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Sofiane

Boufal

AMMorocco · Le Havre AC

№ 232271Emerging €1.9M −0.08

Player dossierLigue 1

SofianeBoufal

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Le Havre AC
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Morocco
Age
32
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Boufal at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Boufal during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 7% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.08. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.08A €1.9M▼ −0.02B €1.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
2,199
Goals
1
Assists
10
Started
24/52
Min / app
42
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Boufal…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €1.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Sofiane Boufal's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 29th, Assists per 90 99th, Minutes, two years 41st, Starts 17th, Minutes, last 365 days 42nd, European club minutes 77th29thGoals99thAssists41stMinutes17thStarts42ndRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.41 this player0.09 midfielder median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Aug 2013
Peak
€15M
Oct 2016
Model target
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
32
8 club changes
Jun 2026€1.8MLe Havre ACValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, Le Havre AC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-08-07€150kAngers SCO
2013-09-13€400kAngers SCO
2014-11-20€800kAngers SCO
2015-01-14€1MLOSC Lille
2015-02-05€2MLOSC Lille
2015-06-06€4.5MLOSC Lille
2016-02-04€9MLOSC Lille
2016-07-13€13MLOSC Lille
2016-10-24€15MSouthampton FC
2017-02-20€15MSouthampton FC
2017-06-28€15MSouthampton FC
2018-01-02€15MSouthampton FC
2018-05-28€12MSouthampton FC
2018-12-21€12MCelta de Vigo
2019-06-11€12MCelta de Vigo
2019-12-10€10MSouthampton FC
2020-04-08€8MSouthampton FC
2020-10-15€8MAngers SCO
2021-01-07€6MAngers SCO
2021-06-04€5MAngers SCO
2021-12-16€6.5MAngers SCO
2022-05-30€8MAngers SCO
2022-11-02€8MAngers SCO
2022-12-23€10MAngers SCO
2023-05-30€8MAl-Rayyan SC
2023-11-27€7MAl-Rayyan SC
2024-05-02€6MAl-Rayyan SC
2024-12-11€4.5MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2025-06-12€3.5MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2025-10-01€3MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2025-12-10€2MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2026-06-01€1.8MLe Havre AC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.077

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 16% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 44% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Boufal appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).