FairValue

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Portrait of Harrison Reed

Harrison

Reed

CMEngland · Fulham FC

№ 226973Established €3.6M −0.59

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

HarrisonReed

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Fulham FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
31
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Reed at €2M. Model A, which never saw Reed during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 45% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.80. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €446k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.59A €3.6M▲ +1.50B €446k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
898
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
9/30
Min / app
30
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Reed…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €3.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Harrison Reed's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 83rd, Assists per 90 52nd, Minutes, two years 11th, Starts 5th, Minutes, last 365 days 16th, European club minutes 30th83rdGoals52ndAssists11thMinutes5thStarts16thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.20 this player0.08 midfielder median83rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Nov 2014
Peak
€18M
Jun 2023
Model target
€2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
4 club changes
Jun 2026€2MFulham FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2M, Fulham FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-11-09€250kSouthampton FC
2015-02-12€750kSouthampton FC
2015-07-01€1.5MSouthampton FC
2016-02-09€1.5MSouthampton FC
2016-08-01€1.5MSouthampton FC
2017-02-20€1.5MSouthampton FC
2017-06-28€1MSouthampton FC
2018-02-27€1MNorwich City
2018-09-24€1MBlackburn Rovers
2019-02-27€1.5MBlackburn Rovers
2019-06-13€2MSouthampton FC
2020-02-27€3MFulham FC
2020-04-08€2.4MFulham FC
2020-10-13€9MFulham FC
2021-03-18€10MFulham FC
2021-06-08€10MFulham FC
2021-11-24€10MFulham FC
2022-05-13€10MFulham FC
2022-11-03€15MFulham FC
2023-06-20€18MFulham FC
2023-12-19€18MFulham FC
2024-05-27€15MFulham FC
2024-10-01€13MFulham FC
2024-12-16€11MFulham FC
2025-03-18€7MFulham FC
2025-05-30€6MFulham FC
2025-10-17€4.5MFulham FC
2025-12-09€3MFulham FC
2026-06-03€2MFulham FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.590

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 9% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Reed appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).