FairValue

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Lautaro

Giannetti

CBArgentina · Antalyaspor

№ 225963Emerging €404k +1.09

Player dossierSüper Lig

LautaroGiannetti

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Antalyaspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Argentina
Age
32
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Giannetti at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Giannetti during training, estimates €404k: the market value is 197% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.97. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €427k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.09A €404k▲ +1.03B €427k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
2,762
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
32/45
Min / app
61
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Giannetti…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €404k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Lautaro Giannetti's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 72nd, Assists per 90 46th, Minutes, two years 48th, Starts 29th, Minutes, last 365 days 54th, European club minutes 30th72ndGoals46thAssists48thMinutes29thStarts54thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.07 this player0.03 defender median72nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Dec 2012
Peak
€5M
Oct 2021
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
26
3 club changes
May 2026€1.2MAntalyasporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Antalyaspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-12-26€150kCA Vélez Sarsfield II
2013-06-30€250kCA Vélez Sarsfield II
2015-07-14€400kCA Vélez Sarsfield
2016-02-06€700kCA Vélez Sarsfield
2016-08-08€1.8MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2017-02-13€2.5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2017-10-09€3MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2018-05-08€1.5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2018-12-18€1.4MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2019-08-06€2.5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2019-12-05€2.5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2020-04-08€2MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2021-02-08€3MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2021-06-11€4.7MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2021-10-20€5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2022-05-24€4.5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2022-09-06€4MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2022-10-26€3.8MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2023-07-04€3MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2023-12-19€2.8MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2024-06-05€2.5MUdinese Calcio
2024-12-18€2.5MUdinese Calcio
2025-06-17€2MUdinese Calcio
2025-10-01€1.8MAntalyaspor
2025-12-17€1.5MAntalyaspor
2026-05-21€1.2MAntalyaspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.088

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 45% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Giannetti appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).