FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Lawrence

Shankland

CFScotland · Heart of Midlothian FC

№ 225744Established €2.2M +0.31

Player dossierPremiership

LawrenceShankland

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Heart of Midlothian FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
30
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Shankland at €3M. Model A, which never saw Shankland during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 37% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.31A €2.2M▲ +0.93B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
4,787
Goals
19
Assists
12
Started
53/57
Min / app
84
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Shankland…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Lawrence Shankland's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 69th, Assists per 90 78th, Minutes, two years 89th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 78th, European club minutes 59th69thGoals78thAssists89thMinutes97thStarts78thRecent59thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

93% this player59% attacker median97th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2013
Peak
€4M
May 2024
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
27
5 club changes
May 2026€3MHeart of Midlothian FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, Heart of Midlothian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-10-08€50kAberdeen FC
2014-10-09€50kAberdeen FC
2015-11-17€150kSt. Mirren FC
2016-11-16€150kSt. Mirren FC
2019-01-03€350kAyr United FC
2019-06-23€450kAyr United FC
2020-02-05€600kDundee United FC
2020-04-08€475kDundee United FC
2020-07-21€650kDundee United FC
2021-01-18€650kDundee United FC
2021-06-28€650kDundee United FC
2021-10-06€850kBeerschot VA
2022-01-06€750kBeerschot VA
2022-04-12€700kBeerschot VA
2022-12-13€850kHeart of Midlothian FC
2023-03-22€1MHeart of Midlothian FC
2023-06-26€1.3MHeart of Midlothian FC
2023-12-05€1.8MHeart of Midlothian FC
2024-03-20€2.5MHeart of Midlothian FC
2024-05-30€4MHeart of Midlothian FC
2024-10-02€3.5MHeart of Midlothian FC
2024-12-03€3MHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-03-12€2.5MHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-06-17€2.5MHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-12-10€2.5MHeart of Midlothian FC
2026-03-05€2.8MHeart of Midlothian FC
2026-05-20€3MHeart of Midlothian FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.315

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 89% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Shankland appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).