FairValue

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Philipp

Lienhart

CBAustria · SC Freiburg

№ 225657Elite €5.3M +0.63

Player dossierBundesliga

PhilippLienhart

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
SC Freiburg
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Austria
Age
29
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lienhart at €10M. Model A, which never saw Lienhart during training, estimates €5.3M: the market value is 88% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.88. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.63A €5.3M▲ +0.71B €4.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
68
Minutes
5,355
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
59/68
Min / app
79
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lienhart…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €5.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Philipp Lienhart's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 64th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 88th, Starts 60th, Minutes, last 365 days 73rd, European club minutes 77th64thGoals17thAssists88thMinutes60thStarts73rdRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,355 this player2,860 defender median88th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€800k
Aug 2016
Peak
€20M
Nov 2022
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
24
1 club change
May 2026€10MSC FreiburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, SC Freiburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€800kReal Madrid Castilla
2017-02-02€800kReal Madrid Castilla
2017-06-30€800kReal Madrid Castilla
2017-10-18€3MSC Freiburg
2017-12-28€3MSC Freiburg
2018-06-05€2.5MSC Freiburg
2018-12-18€2.5MSC Freiburg
2019-06-05€4MSC Freiburg
2019-10-02€7MSC Freiburg
2019-12-17€11MSC Freiburg
2020-04-08€9MSC Freiburg
2020-07-08€12MSC Freiburg
2021-02-10€14MSC Freiburg
2021-05-27€14MSC Freiburg
2021-12-22€17MSC Freiburg
2022-06-09€18MSC Freiburg
2022-11-09€20MSC Freiburg
2023-06-22€20MSC Freiburg
2023-12-14€20MSC Freiburg
2024-05-29€15MSC Freiburg
2024-12-20€15MSC Freiburg
2025-06-05€12MSC Freiburg
2025-12-19€12MSC Freiburg
2026-05-27€10MSC Freiburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.629

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 65% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lienhart appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).