Marko
Grujić
DMSerbia · AEK Athens
Player dossierSuper League
MarkoGrujić
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- AEK Athens
- League
- Super League
- Nationality
- Serbia
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 4 Jun 2026
Super LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Grujić at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Grujić during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 35% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €527k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 20
- Minutes
- 703
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 8/20
- Min / app
- 35
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Grujić…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
12% this player0% midfielder median74th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- May 2015
- Peak
- €20M
- Jun 2019
- Model target
- €1.8M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 29
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €1.8M, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-29 | €25k | Red Star Belgrade |
| 2015-06-15 | €500k | Red Star Belgrade |
| 2015-11-23 | €3M | Red Star Belgrade |
| 2016-05-29 | €5M | Red Star Belgrade |
| 2016-08-01 | €5M | Liverpool FC |
| 2017-02-20 | €5M | Liverpool FC |
| 2017-06-28 | €5M | Liverpool FC |
| 2018-01-02 | €5M | Liverpool FC |
| 2018-12-18 | €12M | Hertha BSC |
| 2019-03-06 | €18M | Hertha BSC |
| 2019-06-05 | €20M | Hertha BSC |
| 2019-12-17 | €18M | Hertha BSC |
| 2020-04-08 | €14.5M | Hertha BSC |
| 2020-10-22 | €14.5M | FC Porto |
| 2021-01-28 | €14M | FC Porto |
| 2021-05-21 | €15M | FC Porto |
| 2021-12-27 | €13M | FC Porto |
| 2022-03-10 | €12M | FC Porto |
| 2022-05-31 | €12M | FC Porto |
| 2022-11-01 | €9M | FC Porto |
| 2023-06-16 | €9M | FC Porto |
| 2023-12-27 | €8M | FC Porto |
| 2024-03-08 | €7M | FC Porto |
| 2024-06-06 | €6M | FC Porto |
| 2024-12-19 | €5M | FC Porto |
| 2025-05-30 | €4M | FC Porto |
| 2025-12-12 | €3M | AEK Athens |
| 2026-03-06 | €2.5M | AEK Athens |
| 2026-06-04 | €1.8M | AEK Athens |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.296
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Super League356 players · median €600k
Valued above 77% of the 356 Super League players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 44% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Grujić appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- IngasonCBPanathinaikos · Super League€1.8M
- FountasLWOFI Crete · Super League€1.8M
- PérezRWAris Thessaloniki · Super League€1.8M
- TejeroRBAris Thessaloniki · Super League€1.8M
- StögerAMBorussia Mönchengladbach · midfielders€1.8M
- GerhardtCMVfL Wolfsburg · midfielders€1.8M
- BelkeblaCMAngers SCO · midfielders€1.8M
- PflückeRMRoyal Charleroi SC · midfielders€1.8M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).