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Douglas

Santos

LBBrazil · Zenit St. Petersburg

№ 220793Established €3.1M +0.87

Player dossierPremier Liga

DouglasSantos

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Zenit St. Petersburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Brazil
Age
32
Height
173 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Santos at €7.5M. Model A, which never saw Santos during training, estimates €3.1M: the market value is 139% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €985k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.87A €3.1M▲ +2.03B €985k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
5,153
Goals
2
Assists
6
Started
56/63
Min / app
82
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Santos…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7.5MModel A €3.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Douglas Santos's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 53rd, Assists per 90 78th, Minutes, two years 85th, Starts 66th, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 30th53rdGoals78thAssists85thMinutes66thStarts64thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,153 this player2,860 defender median85th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2012
Peak
€18M
Jun 2023
Model target
€7.5M
May 2026
Valuations
34
5 club changes
May 2026€7.5MZenit St. PetersburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €7.5M, Zenit St. Petersburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-06-24€50kClube Náutico Capibaribe
2012-12-06€400kClube Náutico Capibaribe
2013-04-09€1.5MClube Náutico Capibaribe
2013-07-25€2.5MGranada CF
2014-01-07€2.5MUdinese Calcio
2014-07-01€2MUdinese Calcio
2015-02-01€3MClube Atlético Mineiro
2015-05-31€3.3MClube Atlético Mineiro
2015-09-11€4.5MClube Atlético Mineiro
2015-12-15€5MClube Atlético Mineiro
2016-05-27€6MClube Atlético Mineiro
2017-02-07€6MHamburger SV
2017-06-19€5MHamburger SV
2017-12-28€5MHamburger SV
2018-06-05€5MHamburger SV
2019-01-08€7.5MHamburger SV
2019-06-12€10MHamburger SV
2019-09-10€12MZenit St. Petersburg
2019-12-23€14MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-04-08€11MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-07-29€12MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-10-19€13MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-12-29€14MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-06-02€16MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-12-29€16MZenit St. Petersburg
2022-06-02€16MZenit St. Petersburg
2022-11-21€16MZenit St. Petersburg
2023-06-14€18MZenit St. Petersburg
2023-12-13€15MZenit St. Petersburg
2024-06-04€12MZenit St. Petersburg
2024-12-12€10MZenit St. Petersburg
2025-06-04€9MZenit St. Petersburg
2025-12-16€8MZenit St. Petersburg
2026-05-26€7.5MZenit St. Petersburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.872

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 92% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€7.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€7.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Santos appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).