FairValue

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Portrait of Neal Maupay

Neal

Maupay

CFFrance · Sevilla FC

№ 217115Established €2.4M +0.49

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

NealMaupay

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Sevilla FC
League
LaLiga
Nationality
France
Age
29
Height
171 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Maupay at €4M. Model A, which never saw Maupay during training, estimates €2.4M: the market value is 63% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.63. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.49A €2.4M▲ +0.91B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
35
Minutes
1,915
Goals
6
Assists
5
Started
23/35
Min / app
55
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Maupay…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €2.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Neal Maupay's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 54th, Assists per 90 79th, Minutes, two years 42nd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 32nd, European club minutes 28th54thGoals79thAssists42ndMinutes62ndStarts32ndRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.23 this player0.15 attacker median79th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Jan 2013
Peak
€22M
Dec 2019
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
35
8 club changes
Jun 2026€4MSevilla FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Sevilla FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-01-11€1MOGC Nice
2013-05-30€2MOGC Nice
2014-01-14€1.8MOGC Nice
2014-08-07€2MOGC Nice
2015-01-14€2MOGC Nice
2015-06-06€2MOGC Nice
2016-02-04€2MAS Saint-Étienne
2016-07-13€1.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2017-03-20€1.5MStade Brestois 29
2017-06-15€2MStade Brestois 29
2018-02-27€2.5MBrentford FC
2018-09-24€5MBrentford FC
2019-02-27€10MBrentford FC
2019-06-28€12MBrentford FC
2019-09-12€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2019-12-10€22MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-04-08€17.5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-07-30€20MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-10-13€22MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-03-18€20MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-06-08€20MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-12-23€20MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-06-15€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-09-15€15MEverton FC
2022-11-03€13MEverton FC
2023-06-20€10MEverton FC
2023-12-19€10MBrentford FC
2024-03-14€12MBrentford FC
2024-05-27€12MBrentford FC
2024-12-10€12MOlympique Marseille
2025-03-24€10MOlympique Marseille
2025-06-03€8MOlympique Marseille
2025-10-10€5MOlympique Marseille
2025-12-15€4MOlympique Marseille
2026-06-05€4MSevilla FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.492

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 50% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 59% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Maupay appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).