FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Nacho

Vidal

RBSpain · Real Oviedo

№ 216870Emerging €1.2M 0.00

Player dossierLaLiga

NachoVidal

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Real Oviedo
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
31
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vidal at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Vidal during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is level with that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.00. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ 0.00A €1.2M▼ −0.08B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
38
Minutes
2,593
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
30/38
Min / app
68
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vidal…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nacho Vidal's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 47th, Minutes, two years 45th, Starts 42nd, Minutes, last 365 days 70th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals47thAssists45thMinutes42ndStarts70thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,272 this player1,687 defender median70th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Aug 2016
Peak
€5M
Mar 2022
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
5 club changes
Jun 2026€1.2MReal OviedoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, Real Oviedo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€300kValencia Mestalla
2017-02-02€300kValencia Mestalla
2017-06-29€300kValencia Mestalla
2018-01-01€2MValencia CF
2018-05-30€1MValencia CF
2019-02-19€1MCA Osasuna
2019-06-29€2MCA Osasuna
2019-12-20€3MCA Osasuna
2020-04-08€2.4MCA Osasuna
2020-10-08€2.5MCA Osasuna
2021-01-05€2MCA Osasuna
2021-06-10€2MCA Osasuna
2021-10-13€2.5MCA Osasuna
2021-12-30€4MCA Osasuna
2022-03-21€5MCA Osasuna
2022-06-03€5MCA Osasuna
2022-11-07€5MCA Osasuna
2023-06-13€5MCA Osasuna
2023-10-13€3MCA Osasuna
2023-12-22€2.5MCA Osasuna
2024-06-07€2MRCD Mallorca
2024-12-27€1.5MCA Osasuna
2025-06-24€1.8MReal Oviedo
2025-12-12€1.6MReal Oviedo
2026-06-05€1.2MReal Oviedo

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.001

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 15% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vidal appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).