MirkoMarić

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club: AC Monza
League: Serie A
Nationality: Croatia
Age: 30
Height: 188 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 11 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Marić at €500k. Model A, which never saw Marić during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 56% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €563k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 23
Minutes: 765
Goals: 0
Assists: 1
Started: 7/23
Min / app: 33
Cards: 0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Marić…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.12 this player0.15 attacker median39th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €100k; Apr 2013
Peak: €4.5M; Jul 2020
Model target: €500k; Dec 2025
Valuations: 29; 10 club changes

Dec 2025€500kAC MonzaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €500k, AC Monza. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2013-04-25	€100k	NK Siroki Brijeg U19
2013-11-05	€100k	NK Siroki Brijeg U19
2014-10-01	€150k	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2015-03-17	€400k	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2015-09-14	€600k	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2016-03-14	€700k	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2016-09-14	€900k	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2017-02-23	€700k	Videoton FC
2017-07-31	€550k	Videoton FC
2017-10-23	€550k	NK Osijek
2018-03-18	€600k	NK Osijek
2018-09-25	€750k	NK Osijek
2019-03-11	€1.5M	NK Osijek
2019-09-16	€1.9M	NK Osijek
2019-12-27	€4M	NK Osijek
2020-04-08	€3.2M	NK Osijek
2020-07-27	€4.5M	NK Osijek
2021-02-22	€3.7M	AC Monza
2021-06-24	€3M	AC Monza
2021-12-29	€2.2M	FC Crotone
2022-06-06	€2.2M	FC Crotone
2022-11-11	€1.7M	AC Monza
2023-03-21	€1M	AC Monza
2023-06-15	€800k	AC Monza
2023-12-20	€800k	AC Monza
2024-06-04	€800k	HNK Rijeka
2024-12-18	€700k	AC Monza
2025-06-17	€700k	Venezia FC
2025-12-11	€500k	AC Monza

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.829

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 1% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 15% of the 1,583 attackers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Marić appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).