FairValue

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Portrait of Alireza Jahanbakhsh

Alireza

Jahanbakhsh

RWIran · FCV Dender EH

№ 213268Emerging €286k +0.56

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPro League

AlirezaJahanbakhsh

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
FCV Dender EH
League
Pro League
Nationality
Iran
Age
32
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Jahanbakhsh at €500k. Model A, which never saw Jahanbakhsh during training, estimates €286k: the market value is 75% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €540k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.56A €286k▼ −0.08B €540k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
41
Minutes
2,406
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
25/41
Min / app
59
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jahanbakhsh…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €286k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Alireza Jahanbakhsh's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 23rd, Assists per 90 51st, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 53rd, Minutes, last 365 days 33rd, European club minutes 28th23rdGoals51stAssists54thMinutes53rdStarts33rdRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

2,406 this player2,242 attacker median54th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€450k
Oct 2012
Peak
€18M
Jul 2018
Model target
€500k
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
8 club changes
Jun 2026€500kFCV Dender EHValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, FCV Dender EH. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-10-30€450kDamash Gilan FC
2013-06-25€750kDamash Gilan FC
2014-02-11€1MNEC Nijmegen
2014-08-15€1.3MNEC Nijmegen
2015-02-21€1.3MNEC Nijmegen
2015-07-01€2MNEC Nijmegen
2016-02-05€2MAZ Alkmaar
2016-07-15€2MAZ Alkmaar
2017-01-18€3MAZ Alkmaar
2017-06-07€5.5MAZ Alkmaar
2018-01-17€8MAZ Alkmaar
2018-06-12€12MAZ Alkmaar
2018-07-16€18MAZ Alkmaar
2018-12-19€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2019-06-13€15MBrighton & Hove Albion
2019-09-12€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2019-12-10€8MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-04-08€6.5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-10-13€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-03-18€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-06-08€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-01-05€4MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2022-06-08€3.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2022-11-11€3MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2023-06-23€4MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2023-12-15€3.7MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2024-05-31€3MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2024-10-16€2.5MWithout Club
2024-12-17€2.3MSC Heerenveen
2025-05-28€1.5MSC Heerenveen
2025-10-21€1.2MWithout Club
2025-12-10€800kFCV Dender EH
2026-03-13€600kFCV Dender EH
2026-06-04€500kFCV Dender EH

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.559

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 9% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 15% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Jahanbakhsh appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).