FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Dmytro

Myshnyov

CMUkraine · FC Oleksandriya

№ 212243Emerging €372k −0.40

Player dossierPremier Liha

DmytroMyshnyov

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Oleksandriya
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
32
Height
170 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Myshnyov at €250k. Model A, which never saw Myshnyov during training, estimates €372k: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.40A €372k▼ −2.65B €3.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
62
Minutes
3,747
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
44/62
Min / app
60
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Myshnyov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €372k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dmytro Myshnyov's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 33rd, Assists per 90 28th, Minutes, two years 70th, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 69th, European club minutes 64th33rdGoals28thAssists70thMinutes54thStarts69thRecent64thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,747 this player2,607 midfielder median70th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jun 2014
Peak
€800k
Dec 2018
Model target
€250k
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
4 club changes
Jun 2026€250kFC OleksandriyaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €250k, FC Oleksandriya. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-06-30€300kIllichivets Mariupol II
2014-12-25€500kIllichivets Mariupol
2015-06-07€500kIllichivets Mariupol
2015-09-26€400kIllichivets Mariupol
2017-02-09€300kIllichivets Mariupol
2017-06-26€400kIllichivets Mariupol
2018-01-12€500kFC Mariupol
2018-08-06€600kFC Mariupol
2018-12-10€800kFC Mariupol
2019-06-20€800kFC Mariupol
2020-01-08€800kFC Mariupol
2020-04-08€650kFC Mariupol
2020-09-04€800kFC Mariupol
2021-01-14€800kFC Mariupol
2021-06-07€700kFC Mariupol
2021-12-20€600kFC Mariupol
2022-05-18€600kFC Mariupol
2022-12-06€600kZorya Lugansk
2023-06-21€700kZorya Lugansk
2023-12-11€600kZorya Lugansk
2024-06-06€500kZorya Lugansk
2024-12-17€400kFC Oleksandriya
2025-06-10€350kFC Oleksandriya
2025-12-18€300kFC Oleksandriya
2026-06-02€250kFC Oleksandriya

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.398

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 17% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Myshnyov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).