FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Jack Grealish

Jack

Grealish

LWEngland · Everton FC

№ 203460Elite €5.3M +1.32

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JackGrealish

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Everton FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
30
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Grealish at €20M. Model A, which never saw Grealish during training, estimates €5.3M: the market value is 275% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.32A €5.3M▲ +2.62B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
3,154
Goals
5
Assists
10
Started
34/53
Min / app
60
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Grealish…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €5.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jack Grealish's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 22nd, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 59th, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 72nd22ndGoals88thAssists69thMinutes59thStarts64thRecent72ndEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.29 this player0.15 attacker median88th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jul 2013
Peak
€100M
Oct 2021
Model target
€20M
Jun 2026
Valuations
33
4 club changes
Jun 2026€20MEverton FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €20M, Everton FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-07-25€150kAston Villa
2013-12-30€250kNotts County
2014-10-05€1MAston Villa
2015-02-12€1MAston Villa
2015-07-01€4.5MAston Villa
2016-02-09€4.5MAston Villa
2016-09-01€4.5MAston Villa
2017-02-27€5MAston Villa
2017-09-18€5MAston Villa
2018-09-24€20MAston Villa
2019-06-28€25MAston Villa
2019-12-10€35MAston Villa
2020-03-09€38MAston Villa
2020-04-08€30.5MAston Villa
2020-07-30€40MAston Villa
2020-10-13€45MAston Villa
2020-12-17€50MAston Villa
2021-03-18€60MAston Villa
2021-05-28€65MAston Villa
2021-10-05€100MManchester City
2021-12-23€80MManchester City
2022-06-15€70MManchester City
2022-11-03€70MManchester City
2023-06-20€75MManchester City
2023-12-19€70MManchester City
2024-03-14€65MManchester City
2024-05-27€60MManchester City
2024-10-01€55MManchester City
2024-12-16€45MManchester City
2025-03-18€35MManchester City
2025-05-30€28MManchester City
2025-12-09€25MEverton FC
2026-06-03€20MEverton FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.322

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 54% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 87% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Grealish appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).