AndreaPetagna

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club: AC Monza
League: Serie A
Nationality: Italy
Age: 30
Height: 190 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 11 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Petagna at €500k. Model A, which never saw Petagna during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 61% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.54. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €735k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 24
Minutes: 1,016
Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Started: 11/24
Min / app: 42
Cards: 2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Petagna…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

46% this player59% attacker median28th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €75k; Nov 2011
Peak: €20M; Jun 2019
Model target: €500k; Dec 2025
Valuations: 36; 10 club changes

Dec 2025€500kAC MonzaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €500k, AC Monza. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2011-11-21	€75k	Milan Primavera
2012-03-06	€100k	Milan Primavera
2012-11-02	€150k	Milan Primavera
2013-06-07	€250k	Milan Primavera
2013-09-25	€800k	UC Sampdoria
2014-01-07	€800k	UC Sampdoria
2014-07-01	€1M	AC Milan
2015-02-10	€750k	Vicenza Calcio
2015-06-29	€700k	Vicenza Calcio
2015-12-28	€600k	Ascoli Picchio
2016-06-13	€600k	Ascoli Picchio
2016-10-14	€1M	Atalanta BC
2017-01-02	€2M	Atalanta BC
2017-03-28	€5M	Atalanta BC
2017-06-08	€7M	Atalanta BC
2017-12-29	€9M	Atalanta BC
2018-06-07	€9M	Atalanta BC
2018-12-20	€10M	SPAL
2019-06-06	€20M	SPAL
2019-12-12	€18M	SPAL
2020-04-08	€14.5M	SPAL
2020-08-25	€15M	SPAL
2020-12-29	€17M	SSC Napoli
2021-06-03	€15M	SSC Napoli
2021-12-28	€13M	SSC Napoli
2022-06-07	€12M	SSC Napoli
2022-11-11	€10M	AC Monza
2023-06-15	€10M	AC Monza
2023-10-11	€7.5M	Cagliari Calcio
2023-12-20	€6.5M	Cagliari Calcio
2024-03-12	€5M	Cagliari Calcio
2024-06-05	€3.8M	Cagliari Calcio
2024-12-18	€2M	AC Monza
2025-03-25	€1.4M	AC Monza
2025-06-17	€1M	AC Monza
2025-12-11	€500k	AC Monza

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.931

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 1% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 15% of the 1,583 attackers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Petagna appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).