NikolaosMelissas

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club: AE Larisa
League: Super League
Nationality: Greece
Age: 33
Height: 193 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Melissas at €200k. Model A, which never saw Melissas during training, estimates €196k: the market value is 2% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €367k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 15
Minutes: 1,350
Started: 15/15
Min / app: 90
Cards: 2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Melissas…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €150k; Dec 2012
Peak: €300k; May 2019
Model target: €200k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 24; 9 club changes

Jun 2026€200kAE LarisaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €200k, AE Larisa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2012-12-21	€150k	PAOK Thessaloniki
2013-02-10	€150k	PAOK Thessaloniki
2014-12-21	€150k	Iraklis Psachnon
2015-06-07	€150k	Iraklis Psachnon
2015-09-27	€150k	PAOK Thessaloniki
2016-06-21	€200k	PAOK Thessaloniki
2017-04-20	€250k	AE Sparti
2017-12-18	€250k	PAS Lamia 1964
2018-05-22	€250k	PAS Lamia 1964
2018-12-07	€250k	PAS Lamia 1964
2019-05-21	€300k	PAS Lamia 1964
2019-12-18	€300k	Volos NFC
2020-08-04	€300k	PAOK Thessaloniki
2021-02-12	€300k	Panetolikos
2021-11-01	€250k	Panetolikos
2022-06-09	€250k	Panetolikos
2023-01-10	€300k	Nea Salamina Famagusta
2023-05-31	€300k	Nea Salamina Famagusta
2023-12-28	€300k	Nea Salamina Famagusta
2024-05-17	€300k	Nea Salamina Famagusta
2024-12-09	€250k	Nea Salamina Famagusta
2025-05-29	€225k	Nea Salamina Famagusta
2025-12-12	€225k	AE Larisa
2026-06-04	€200k	AE Larisa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.019

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 10% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 9% of the 485 goalkeepers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Melissas appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).