FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Chuba Akpom

Chuba

Akpom

CFEngland · Ipswich Town

№ 197642Established €6.3M −0.05

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

ChubaAkpom

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Ipswich Town
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
30
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Akpom at €6M. Model A, which never saw Akpom during training, estimates €6.3M: the market value is 5% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.05A €6.3M▼ −0.12B €6.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
64
Minutes
3,148
Goals
20
Assists
5
Started
29/64
Min / app
49
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Akpom…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €6.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Chuba Akpom's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 93rd, Assists per 90 49th, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 27th, Minutes, last 365 days 42nd, European club minutes 90th93rdGoals49thAssists69thMinutes27thStarts42ndRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.57 this player0.26 attacker median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Jul 2013
Peak
€12M
Jun 2023
Model target
€6M
Dec 2025
Valuations
29
12 club changes
Dec 2025€6MIpswich TownValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €6M, Ipswich Town. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-07-25€250kArsenal FC U21
2015-02-12€1MArsenal FC U21
2015-09-24€1MHull City
2016-04-20€1MHull City
2016-08-01€1MArsenal FC
2017-02-27€1MBrighton & Hove Albion
2017-06-28€1MArsenal FC
2018-01-02€1MArsenal FC
2018-06-03€1.2MSint-Truidense VV
2018-12-07€1.3MPAOK Thessaloniki
2019-02-07€1.5MPAOK Thessaloniki
2019-05-21€3MPAOK Thessaloniki
2019-12-18€3MPAOK Thessaloniki
2020-04-08€2.4MPAOK Thessaloniki
2020-08-04€3.2MPAOK Thessaloniki
2020-10-15€3.5MMiddlesbrough FC
2021-03-10€3.2MMiddlesbrough FC
2021-06-30€3.2MMiddlesbrough FC
2021-11-01€3.2MPAOK Thessaloniki
2022-06-09€3.2MPAOK Thessaloniki
2022-10-27€2.8MMiddlesbrough FC
2023-03-24€7MMiddlesbrough FC
2023-06-01€12MMiddlesbrough FC
2023-12-15€12MAjax Amsterdam
2024-05-31€12MAjax Amsterdam
2024-10-14€10MAjax Amsterdam
2024-12-17€8MAjax Amsterdam
2025-06-03€7MLOSC Lille
2025-12-03€6MIpswich Town

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.053

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 23% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 68% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Akpom appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).