FairValue

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Portrait of John McGinn

John

McGinn

CMScotland · Aston Villa

№ 193116Elite €12M +0.08

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JohnMcGinn

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Aston Villa
League
Premier League
Nationality
Scotland
Age
31
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values McGinn at €13M. Model A, which never saw McGinn during training, estimates €12M: the market value is 9% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €12.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.08A €12M▲ +0.02B €12.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
91
Minutes
6,166
Goals
14
Assists
13
Started
76/91
Min / app
68
Cards
15Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for McGinn…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €13M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €13MModel A €12M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

John McGinn's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 83rd, Assists per 90 82nd, Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 76th, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 88th83rdGoals82ndAssists96thMinutes76thStarts90thRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,166 this player2,607 midfielder median96th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Feb 2013
Peak
€32M
Jun 2022
Model target
€13M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
2 club changes
Jun 2026€13MAston VillaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €13M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-02-14€200kSt. Mirren FC
2013-10-08€300kSt. Mirren FC
2014-02-13€400kSt. Mirren FC
2014-10-07€450kSt. Mirren FC
2015-11-16€500kHibernian FC
2016-11-16€550kHibernian FC
2018-03-04€1.3MHibernian FC
2018-08-08€1.8MAston Villa
2018-09-24€3MAston Villa
2019-02-27€3.5MAston Villa
2019-06-28€6.5MAston Villa
2019-12-10€20MAston Villa
2020-04-08€16MAston Villa
2020-10-13€16MAston Villa
2020-12-17€20MAston Villa
2021-03-18€28MAston Villa
2021-05-28€30MAston Villa
2021-12-23€30MAston Villa
2022-06-15€32MAston Villa
2022-11-03€30MAston Villa
2023-03-16€27MAston Villa
2023-06-20€27MAston Villa
2023-12-19€30MAston Villa
2024-05-27€30MAston Villa
2024-12-16€23MAston Villa
2025-03-18€18MAston Villa
2025-05-30€16MAston Villa
2025-12-09€15MAston Villa
2026-06-03€13MAston Villa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.083

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 40% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Where McGinn appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).