FairValue

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Jackson

Irvine

CMAustralia · FC St. Pauli

№ 192557Emerging €695k +0.36

Player dossierBundesliga

JacksonIrvine

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC St. Pauli
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Australia
Age
33
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Irvine at €1M. Model A, which never saw Irvine during training, estimates €695k: the market value is 44% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €684k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.36A €695k▲ +0.38B €684k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
4,557
Goals
0
Assists
6
Started
50/57
Min / app
80
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Irvine…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €695k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jackson Irvine's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 82nd, Starts 83rd, Minutes, last 365 days 56th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals60thAssists82ndMinutes83rdStarts56thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

88% this player69% midfielder median83rd percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2013
Peak
€3.5M
Jun 2019
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
25
6 club changes
May 2026€1MFC St. PauliValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, FC St. Pauli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-10-08€100kKilmarnock FC
2014-02-13€150kKilmarnock FC
2014-10-09€175kRoss County FC
2015-12-01€325kRoss County FC
2016-09-01€350kBurton Albion
2017-02-27€1MBurton Albion
2017-09-18€2MHull City
2018-02-27€2MHull City
2018-09-24€2.5MHull City
2019-06-28€3.5MHull City
2020-02-27€3.5MHull City
2020-04-08€2.8MHull City
2020-11-10€2.5MWithout Club
2021-01-18€2.5MHibernian FC
2021-06-28€2MHibernian FC
2021-12-15€2MFC St. Pauli
2022-06-16€2MFC St. Pauli
2022-11-14€2MFC St. Pauli
2023-06-28€1.5MFC St. Pauli
2023-12-15€1.8MFC St. Pauli
2024-06-06€2MFC St. Pauli
2024-12-20€2MFC St. Pauli
2025-06-05€2MFC St. Pauli
2025-12-19€1.5MFC St. Pauli
2026-05-27€1MFC St. Pauli

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.364

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 7% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Irvine appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).