FairValue

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Portrait of Victor Lindelöf

Victor

Lindelöf

CBSweden · Aston Villa

№ 184573Established €5.5M −0.10

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

VictorLindelöf

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Aston Villa
League
Premier League
Nationality
Sweden
Age
31
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lindelöf at €5M. Model A, which never saw Lindelöf during training, estimates €5.5M: the market value is 10% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.10A €5.5M▲ +0.32B €3.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
50
Minutes
2,808
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
30/50
Min / app
56
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lindelöf…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €5.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Victor Lindelöf's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 45th, Minutes, two years 49th, Starts 15th, Minutes, last 365 days 51st, European club minutes 97th18thGoals45thAssists49thMinutes15thStarts51stRecent97thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

36% this player0% defender median97th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jun 2011
Peak
€35M
Mar 2019
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
32
4 club changes
Jun 2026€5MAston VillaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-06-07€75kVästerås SK
2012-11-10€150kSL Benfica B
2013-11-08€500kSL Benfica B
2014-02-20€1MSL Benfica B
2015-07-01€1.5MSL Benfica
2016-02-24€2.5MSL Benfica
2016-06-01€8MSL Benfica
2016-07-29€12MSL Benfica
2017-02-22€18MSL Benfica
2017-06-26€22MSL Benfica
2018-01-02€25MManchester United
2018-05-28€25MManchester United
2018-12-19€25MManchester United
2019-03-05€35MManchester United
2019-06-13€35MManchester United
2019-12-10€35MManchester United
2020-04-08€28MManchester United
2020-10-13€24MManchester United
2021-03-18€24MManchester United
2021-05-31€24MManchester United
2021-12-23€24MManchester United
2022-06-15€22MManchester United
2022-09-15€18MManchester United
2022-11-03€15MManchester United
2023-06-20€18MManchester United
2023-12-19€18MManchester United
2024-03-14€15MManchester United
2024-05-27€15MManchester United
2024-12-16€10MManchester United
2025-05-30€8MManchester United
2025-12-09€6MAston Villa
2026-06-03€5MAston Villa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.104

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 21% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lindelöf appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).