FairValue

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Kevin

Mbabu

RBSwitzerland · FC Midtjylland

№ 183321Established €1.7M +0.28

Player dossierSuperliga

KevinMbabu

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
FC Midtjylland
League
Superliga
Nationality
Switzerland
Age
31
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mbabu at €2.2M. Model A, which never saw Mbabu during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 32% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.32. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.28A €1.7M▼ −0.04B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
3,557
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
40/57
Min / app
62
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mbabu…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.2MModel A €1.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Kevin Mbabu's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 70th, Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 27th, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 97th44thGoals70thAssists63rdMinutes27thStarts61stRecent97thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

35% this player0% defender median97th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2012
Peak
€14M
Oct 2021
Model target
€2.2M
May 2026
Valuations
28
7 club changes
May 2026€2.2MFC MidtjyllandValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.2M, FC Midtjylland. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-09-05€50kServette FC
2016-02-09€250kNewcastle United
2016-12-20€750kBSC Young Boys
2017-07-12€1.5MBSC Young Boys
2017-09-29€2.3MBSC Young Boys
2018-01-08€3.5MBSC Young Boys
2018-04-24€7MBSC Young Boys
2018-07-12€9.5MBSC Young Boys
2019-01-21€10MBSC Young Boys
2019-04-15€10MBSC Young Boys
2019-06-04€10MBSC Young Boys
2019-12-17€8MVfL Wolfsburg
2020-04-08€6.5MVfL Wolfsburg
2020-07-08€8.5MVfL Wolfsburg
2021-02-10€9MVfL Wolfsburg
2021-05-25€12MVfL Wolfsburg
2021-10-07€14MVfL Wolfsburg
2021-12-22€12MVfL Wolfsburg
2022-06-09€9MVfL Wolfsburg
2022-11-03€7MFulham FC
2023-03-28€5MServette FC
2023-06-07€3.5MServette FC
2023-12-14€3.5MFC Augsburg
2024-05-29€4MFC Augsburg
2024-12-09€4MFC Midtjylland
2025-06-16€3.5MFC Midtjylland
2025-12-15€3MFC Midtjylland
2026-05-25€2.2MFC Midtjylland

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.279

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 75% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mbabu appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).