FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Scott

Pittman

AMScotland · Livingston FC

№ 182614Emerging €99k −0.68

Player dossierPremiership

ScottPittman

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Livingston FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
33
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pittman at €50k. Model A, which never saw Pittman during training, estimates €99k: the market value is 49% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.98. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €233k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.68A €99k▼ −1.54B €233k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
2,384
Goals
4
Assists
2
Started
27/32
Min / app
75
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pittman…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50kModel A €99k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Scott Pittman's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 72nd, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 45th, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 76th, European club minutes 30th72ndGoals42ndAssists45thMinutes78thStarts76thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

84% this player69% midfielder median78th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Nov 2015
Peak
€550k
Jun 2022
Model target
€50k
May 2026
Valuations
21
0 club changes
May 2026€50kLivingston FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €50k, Livingston FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-11-16€50kLivingston FC
2018-01-25€250kLivingston FC
2018-08-08€300kLivingston FC
2019-01-03€400kLivingston FC
2019-08-20€500kLivingston FC
2020-02-05€400kLivingston FC
2020-04-08€325kLivingston FC
2021-01-18€450kLivingston FC
2021-06-28€450kLivingston FC
2021-12-31€450kLivingston FC
2022-06-27€550kLivingston FC
2022-12-13€550kLivingston FC
2023-06-26€500kLivingston FC
2023-12-05€400kLivingston FC
2024-05-30€300kLivingston FC
2024-10-04€250kLivingston FC
2024-12-03€225kLivingston FC
2025-06-17€150kLivingston FC
2025-12-10€100kLivingston FC
2026-03-05€50kLivingston FC
2026-05-20€50kLivingston FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.682

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 2% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€50kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 0% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pittman appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).