FairValue

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Joris van

Overeem

DMNetherlands · SC Heerenveen

№ 182582Emerging €1.7M −0.54

Player dossierEredivisie

Joris vanOvereem

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
SC Heerenveen
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
31
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Overeem at €1M. Model A, which never saw Overeem during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 42% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.72. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.54A €1.7M▼ −0.50B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
3,293
Goals
2
Assists
9
Started
37/37
Min / app
89
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Overeem…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Joris van Overeem's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 36th, Assists per 90 91st, Minutes, two years 62nd, Starts 99th, Minutes, last 365 days 96th, European club minutes 30th36thGoals91stAssists62ndMinutes99thStarts96thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player69% midfielder median99th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2012
Peak
€3.5M
Jul 2016
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
32
5 club changes
May 2026€1MSC HeerenveenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, SC Heerenveen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-09-10€50kAZ Alkmaar U21
2014-02-10€150kAZ Alkmaar U21
2014-08-11€200kFC Dordrecht
2014-11-02€350kFC Dordrecht
2015-02-11€350kFC Dordrecht
2015-07-01€650kAZ Alkmaar
2015-11-11€1MAZ Alkmaar
2016-02-05€1.5MAZ Alkmaar
2016-04-08€2.5MAZ Alkmaar
2016-07-15€3.5MAZ Alkmaar
2017-01-18€3MAZ Alkmaar
2017-06-07€3MAZ Alkmaar
2018-01-17€3MAZ Alkmaar
2018-03-27€2MAZ Alkmaar
2018-06-12€1.5MAZ Alkmaar
2018-12-28€1.5MFC Utrecht
2019-06-12€1.8MFC Utrecht
2019-12-16€1.8MFC Utrecht
2020-04-08€1.4MFC Utrecht
2020-10-14€1.4MFC Utrecht
2021-05-19€1.5MFC Utrecht
2021-10-04€1.2MFC Utrecht
2022-01-05€1.2MFC Utrecht
2022-06-08€900kFC Utrecht
2022-12-20€700kMaccabi Tel Aviv
2023-05-29€300kMaccabi Tel Aviv
2023-12-22€450kMaccabi Tel Aviv
2024-06-17€800kMaccabi Tel Aviv
2024-12-30€800kMaccabi Tel Aviv
2025-06-13€800kMaccabi Tel Aviv
2025-12-02€900kSC Heerenveen
2026-05-28€1MSC Heerenveen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.544

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 46% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Overeem appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).