FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Nathan Aké

Nathan

Aké

CBNetherlands · Manchester City

№ 177476Elite €5.4M +0.79

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

NathanAké

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
31
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Aké at €12M. Model A, which never saw Aké during training, estimates €5.4M: the market value is 120% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.79A €5.4M▲ +0.75B €5.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
2,860
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
31/51
Min / app
56
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Aké…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €5.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nathan Aké's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 16th, Minutes, last 365 days 54th, European club minutes 89th18thGoals17thAssists50thMinutes16thStarts54thRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

24% this player0% defender median89th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1.5M
Jul 2013
Peak
€42M
Jun 2023
Model target
€12M
Jun 2026
Valuations
35
5 club changes
Jun 2026€12MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €12M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-07-25€1.5MChelsea FC
2015-02-12€1.5MChelsea FC
2015-07-01€2MChelsea FC
2016-02-09€4.5MWatford FC
2016-08-01€5MAFC Bournemouth
2017-02-20€8MChelsea FC
2017-06-28€8MChelsea FC
2017-08-16€12MAFC Bournemouth
2018-01-02€15MAFC Bournemouth
2018-05-28€15MAFC Bournemouth
2018-10-17€25MAFC Bournemouth
2018-12-19€25MAFC Bournemouth
2019-03-05€28MAFC Bournemouth
2019-06-13€30MAFC Bournemouth
2019-09-12€35MAFC Bournemouth
2019-12-10€35MAFC Bournemouth
2020-04-08€28MAFC Bournemouth
2020-10-13€40MManchester City
2021-03-18€35MManchester City
2021-05-27€32MManchester City
2021-12-23€28MManchester City
2022-03-29€25MManchester City
2022-06-15€25MManchester City
2022-11-03€30MManchester City
2023-03-16€35MManchester City
2023-06-20€42MManchester City
2023-12-19€40MManchester City
2024-05-27€40MManchester City
2024-12-16€35MManchester City
2025-03-18€32MManchester City
2025-05-30€25MManchester City
2025-10-17€22MManchester City
2025-12-09€18MManchester City
2026-03-09€15MManchester City
2026-06-03€12MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.790

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 36% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 84% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Aké appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).