Simon
Murray
CFScotland · Dundee FC
Player dossierPremiership
SimonMurray
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Dundee FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Scotland
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Murray at €100k. Model A, which never saw Murray during training, estimates €183k: the market value is 45% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.83. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €670k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 66
- Minutes
- 4,799
- Goals
- 23
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 57/66
- Min / app
- 73
- Cards
- 13Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Murray…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
86% this player59% attacker median90th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Dec 2015
- Peak
- €550k
- Jan 2019
- Model target
- €100k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 16
- 6 club changes
May 2026: €100k, Dundee FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-12-07 | €100k | Dundee United FC |
| 2016-11-17 | €250k | Dundee United FC |
| 2018-03-04 | €450k | Dundee FC |
| 2019-01-19 | €550k | Bidvest Wits FC |
| 2019-06-26 | €550k | Bidvest Wits FC |
| 2020-02-14 | €450k | Bidvest Wits FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €350k | Without Club |
| 2022-12-13 | €275k | Queen's Park FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €250k | Ross County FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €250k | Ross County FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €200k | Ross County FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €200k | Dundee FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €200k | Dundee FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €150k | Dundee FC |
| 2026-03-05 | €100k | Dundee FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €100k | Dundee FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.606
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 7% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 1% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Murray appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BainGKFalkirk FC · Premiership€100k
- ShinnieDMAberdeen FC · Premiership€100k
- WilsonCBLivingston FC · Premiership€100k
- HoltCMSt. Johnstone FC · Premiership€100k
- KaracaRWAlanyaspor · attackers€100k
- KramerCFRKC Waalwijk · attackers€100k
- ArabiCFFC Nantes · attackers€100k
- ViscaRWTrabzonspor · attackers€100k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).